I don't think so.
The reality is that the adoption is incredibly fast and that revenues of the AI labs are like doubling by the quarter.
Further, there is the expectation that breakthroughs in applying AI to science, robotics, or medicine may unlock trillions in value.
That this will take 20 years, rather than happen before 2030, is just speculation. None of us can see the future.
The speculation that the AI investment sector depends on is not just that adoption is incredible and that the value it generates is high, it's ALSO that the companies will be able to capture a significant amount of that value generation for themselves via fees or some other mechanism.
Are the LLM vendors more comparable to Google/Apple in this scenario, or more comparable to AT&T and Bell?
In this comparison they are more like Apple and Google: they are ahead in research and are able to offer better technology than their competitors.
The six month gap between the open-weight models and the frontier has not closed yet.
They’re still losing gigantic amounts of money. Whether that is because they’re “flooring it” as it were and growth will eventually catch up, or because the business idea is fundamentally flawed and just temporarily alive because of investor risk appetite, is the fundamental question underpinning whether it’s a bubble or not, and nobody knows the answer to that question for sure. That’s how bubbles work.
They are already profitable and are investing enormous amounts into datacenter buildout to meet demand over the next years.
How is that compared to the speed at which money is thrown in them? And how much of the profit downstream they might indeed potentially capture with high retention rate?
Bubble can’t be assessed on mere quarter profit expansion over short period (relative to large company group life expectancy).
Don't you think that it's less than reasonable to suggest that the technology will take on the order of 20 years to mature into widespread adoption and profitability?