The speculation that the AI investment sector depends on is not just that adoption is incredible and that the value it generates is high, it's ALSO that the companies will be able to capture a significant amount of that value generation for themselves via fees or some other mechanism.
Are the LLM vendors more comparable to Google/Apple in this scenario, or more comparable to AT&T and Bell?
In this comparison they are more like Apple and Google: they are ahead in research and are able to offer better technology than their competitors.
The six month gap between the open-weight models and the frontier has not closed yet.
The bubble exists because c-suite people are sheep. They follow the herd, and the frontier CEO wolf-wannabes have been trying to herd them in a profitable direction.
But herds are easily frightened, and there's always a danger they'll stampede in a different direction.
And the risk of a catastrophic AI-enhanced online blackout is increasing.
The cheaper open-weight ones, even if they were available with our enterprise contracts, would be a huge downgrade.