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user43928 | on: I'm not convinced the AI bubble exists
It is looking entirely plausible to me that Anthropic will make a profit in 2027.

Don't you think that it's less than reasonable to suggest that the technology will take on the order of 20 years to mature into widespread adoption and profitability?

Windchaser | parent | next
It looks like profitability will come when research costs drop. But that will also probably mean that the moat goes away, and the gap between frontier models and open source goes away.

In which case, the people being profitable won't be the generic big LLM companies. It'll be the people who use the LLMs, or (maybe) specialized AI companies that still have a niche and moat.

claytongulick | parent
> It is looking entirely plausible to me that Anthropic will make a profit in 2027.

Then you should invest heavily in their IPO, I suppose.

You'll do much better than those of us who believe there is no way their financials can ever work.

I came to my conclusion a different way, I ran different models locally and measured the amout of resources required for basic things. From that I extrapolated some napkin unit economics, and I couldn't find any way to build a profitable business from it.

I don't assume I'm the smartest guy in the room though, so for all of our sake, I hope you're right.

user43928 | root | parent
In what sense did your test show no profitability?

I'm not sure if that is relevant here, but I've often seen people dramatically overestimate inference costs.

If we look at eg. https://inferencex.semianalysis.com/run/kimi-k31-pro-on-b300, it suggests that SOTA models are likely served in the API with profit margins in the ballpark of 98%.