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psychoslave | on: I'm not convinced the AI bubble exists
> The reality is that the adoption is incredibly fast and that revenues of the AI labs are like doubling by the quarter.

How is that compared to the speed at which money is thrown in them? And how much of the profit downstream they might indeed potentially capture with high retention rate?

Bubble can’t be assessed on mere quarter profit expansion over short period (relative to large company group life expectancy).

user43928 | parent
It is looking entirely plausible to me that Anthropic will make a profit in 2027.

Don't you think that it's less than reasonable to suggest that the technology will take on the order of 20 years to mature into widespread adoption and profitability?

Windchaser | root | parent | next
It looks like profitability will come when research costs drop. But that will also probably mean that the moat goes away, and the gap between frontier models and open source goes away.

In which case, the people being profitable won't be the generic big LLM companies. It'll be the people who use the LLMs, or (maybe) specialized AI companies that still have a niche and moat.

claytongulick | root | parent
> It is looking entirely plausible to me that Anthropic will make a profit in 2027.

Then you should invest heavily in their IPO, I suppose.

You'll do much better than those of us who believe there is no way their financials can ever work.

I came to my conclusion a different way, I ran different models locally and measured the amout of resources required for basic things. From that I extrapolated some napkin unit economics, and I couldn't find any way to build a profitable business from it.

I don't assume I'm the smartest guy in the room though, so for all of our sake, I hope you're right.

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