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> It is looking entirely plausible to me that Anthropic will make a profit in 2027.

Then you should invest heavily in their IPO, I suppose.

You'll do much better than those of us who believe there is no way their financials can ever work.

I came to my conclusion a different way, I ran different models locally and measured the amout of resources required for basic things. From that I extrapolated some napkin unit economics, and I couldn't find any way to build a profitable business from it.

I don't assume I'm the smartest guy in the room though, so for all of our sake, I hope you're right.

In what sense did your test show no profitability?

I'm not sure if that is relevant here, but I've often seen people dramatically overestimate inference costs.

If we look at eg. https://inferencex.semianalysis.com/run/kimi-k31-pro-on-b300, it suggests that SOTA models are likely served in the API with profit margins in the ballpark of 98%.