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Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

https://simonwillison.net/2026/Jun/3/uber-caps-usage/
> I noted that my own token usage comes to about $1,000/month against each of Anthropic and OpenAI - which currently costs me just $100 per provider thanks to their generous subsidized plans for individual subscribers.

Do we know that AI providers are going to keep these per-token prices, or eventually lower them because of competition from China?

Many lower-budget individuals are now moving to China open weight models like DeepSeek. I wonder if China's really subsidising the providers, or if inferencing costs are actually much lower, and Anthropic/OpenAI are just making sure no money's left on the table for their eventual IPOs.

We can tell that the inferencing costs for many of these models are low enough that these models are being sold close to real costs on the basis that many of them are open weight and available from third party providers who have no incentive to subsidize them.

I think the frontier labs will need to drop their high per-token prices at least for their low and mid-level models for the reason that several Chinese models (at least Qwen, DeepSeek, Kimi and GLM) are "close enough" that with the right harness they are cost effective alternatives.

They won't necessarily need to close the gap - at least not yet -, because these models won't necessarily compete at the same token counts. E.g. at least some of them need to do far more work to solve the same problems.

But, yeah, the prices will come down one way or the other.

At the same time, even the subscriptions for the cheap Chinese models are probably subsidised, and those subscriptions are likely to get less generous over time.

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One aspect Paul Kedrosky mentioned recently is the concept of „duration mismatch“. The price per token goes down over time (either because the AI vendor reduces due to competition pressure, or because customers are now incentivized to use older cheaper models). But datacenters are financed through debt, with the assumption their revenue increases over time. Quoting him: „[AI vendors are] paying for a fixed cost with a depreciating commodity“[0].

So you have on one end the token revenue trending down, on the other end the training cost going up for the next frontier models, and you need to pay back your 10y debt.

0: https://youtu.be/wGZboZcSGDY?is=64GuKyqBh_4aSjTE

"So you have on one end the token revenue trending down, on the other end the training cost going up for the next frontier models, and you need to pay back your 10y debt."

Not necessarily, the bond holders could simply take a massive hair cut and lose shitloads of money. On the topic of bubbles and exuberance, Jeff Bezos made the salient point that there was a massive over-invested biotech boom in the 1990s and tons of sophisticated investors ended up losing lots of money. But humanity still kept the medical advancements made by the boom. Stocks going down didn't un-research drugs, and it won't un-research new GPUs or un-build datacenters.

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Current AI datacenter/model development investment rate is roughly 1T/year. That's a lot. But the US economy is 33T/year. So the investment pays back (roughly) over ten years if, each year, the AI investments increase overall productivity by 0.6%, assuming the AI companies can capture half of the value of that productivity gain.

> „[AI vendors are] paying for a fixed cost with a depreciating commodity“

That's just a confusing way to say you don't think future models will be worth the development costs. Because if future models are significantly better, why would the price of tokens to access those models deprecate?

I'm surprised people think LLMs, a thing which mainly excels at advertising, spam and writing code is going to generate that much economic activity.
Companies whose main core competency is writing code were already making up a big chunk of the economy before AI. Also, less wealthy companies were constrained in their use of software by the inability to afford the salaries of talented programmers (and ripoff practices from software consulting companies who in theory could help). Lowering the cost of building software systems ought to unblock a good amount of economic activity as the technology diffuses.
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But what if it kills current ad-tech as we know it (paying to show ads on random sites without any way to verify that the site is legit), and the flow of ad money for legitimate goods turns back to journalism, magazines and other publications?

That would be half a trillion[1] redirected to regular people just from Google Ads.

[1] snatched my number from here: https://pixis.ai/blog/2025-google-advertising-benchmarks-for...

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A few things, I think you’re missing the point here

- most tasks do not require the latest frontier models, even if they are a magnitude more intelligent (we don’t actually know if that will be the case). Current Gemini flash is cheap, fast, and pretty capable with good guidance for most tasks

- now that companies pay API costs instead of a subscription they will be setting restrictions on token use to not have their budget explode (like Uber in this submission), that’s a strong incentive to NOT use expensive models, and limit their thinking budget

- there is competitive pressure from China and others who can offer very decent performances at a fraction of the token price

- the price of tokens for the frontier models is likely to go up, but the price to access older models is what depreciates! The overall price per token is going down now that we are in a new world where companies understand that token maxing is one of the stupidest concept ever created by humankind.

These are similar numbers to the dotcom bubble. With GDP growth and the percentage of productivity AI contributes staying the same in this scenario this requires regular gains in revenue or growth. If things just stumble, like with most datacenters going unbuilt the bubble will pop.
The $1T number seems more promises than reality, which is closer to the $300B to $500B level. Still a big number, but between a third and a half of the value used in the popular media.
The cost of power cost increase alone on industry gonna erase all gains from it.

You can't consider it in vacuum. AI takes limited resources. So far it winded up cost on near every consumer electronics that runs an OS, and it winded up cost of energy that is used by the entire industry and every single customer

It's not just the cost of datacenters, it's cost of infrastructure (that given current direction of US govt will just be paid from people's fucking taxes and bills..) and cost of other industries turning outright unprofitable "thanks" to demands of AI

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If you have a good model router, you can route to older, cheaper models that run on older hardware, for simpler tasks. That helps labs extend the economic life of their hardware investments. They will likely fight it at first though as they see it as reducing ASP.

This is why I'm building role-model, a routing protocol and a router runtime: https://role-model.dev/

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The other part of that is that while price per token may be going down, tokens per task is going up
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do GPU chips really depreciate physically? There are no moving parts, I dont think memory chips or GPU chips deteriorate naturally.

I think its only accounting depreciation.

I have been using my laptop for a decade, what is stopping datacenters from using the purchased GPU chips for a decade?

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Using a shittier model is just more work for the user, I’m not sure why anyone does it, unless they’re playing with it like a toy.
Local privacy respecting inference can be worth it. I use a local model to log everything I do all week to automate my timesheet. I also have it do a bunch of other data tasks. I won't say that larger SOTA models wouldn't do these tasks better than a local model but PII is a concern and my employer wouldn't approve of me just setting tokens on fire everyday to do what I could do myself.
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> more work for the user

Model routers allow this to happen automatically without any more work by the user.

> a shittier model

A ton of tasks don't require the most expensive frontier models, etc.

> I’m not sure why anyone does it

1. Faster solutions from the LLM - also reduces employee costs of having the employee waiting on the LLM

2. Avoiding things like the half-billion dollar per month bill for a single company’s LLM use recently reported in Axios

I sometimes let Claude Opus create plans, DeepSeek v4 pro implements and writes tests. Claude reviews and corrects.

Saves like $2-3 per session. Same quality code.

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Don't worry, they'll just lobby to ban Chinese models instead to keep their token revenues high.

> Compounding the problem, labs in China often release dual-use capable models as open-weight. Once a model is open-weight, safeguards that do exist can be removed, making the model available to any state or non-state actor to use for malicious purposes, including the cyber and CBRN misuse those safeguards were built to prevent.

https://www.anthropic.com/research/2028-ai-leadership

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Raise them, more likely. NVidia says that GPU hardware prices won't decrease until at least 2030. The world is out of fab capacity.
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Most sane US companies will disallow use of cloud-based Chinese AI providers, because everything including code, data, PII, etc is being sent to them.
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> Do we know that AI providers are going to keep these per-token prices, or eventually lower them because of competition from China?

Raise, they are going to raise the prices. We will spend more on AI infrastructure in 2026 and 2027 than the gross sales of the entire global software and services sector. Current pricing is at a major loss for current providers.

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Per token costs will fall, but the harnesses will get more token hungry. Instead of just centering the div it’ll spin up a battery of agents to architect, critique, advise, code, review, refactor and so on.
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If Anthropic are then they are making a big mistake, their token hungry Claude code is far too greedy
They're going to need to bring in a few trillion dollars fast to meet wall street expectations. Expect prices to rise.
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> Do we know that AI providers are going to keep these per-token prices, or eventually lower them because of competition from China?

I genuinely do not know how prices can get lower from the current major providers in NA without the whole market collapsing. Everyone is spending copious amounts of money to presumably make more money back.

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id be amazed any american business will aend data to china
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API prices of Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google are massively inflated.

https://martinalderson.com/posts/no-it-doesnt-cost-anthropic...

There's no way that all AI inference providers are colluding and/or all running at a massive loss, meaning the cheap Chinese model prices must be the real cost it takes to run frontier-class models PLUS their margin.

Look at Deepseek 4 Pro. https://openrouter.ai/deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro/providers Deepseek and Baidu are subsidising prices but they probably train on inputs. I have no model training and ZDR in OpenRouter enabled, and the first provider that shows up there is Deepinfra, significantly more expensive than Deepseek. BUT much cheaper than Sonnet 4.6 and ChatGPT GPT-5.4.

How many more months do we need to wait, until big companies realize that flash models work just fine if you:

1) Don't ask LLMs for big changes

2) Review everything and point them in the right direction

Large models still suck at big changes, they produce questionable architecture and you still have to review the code, if your project is serious enough.

The codebase quickly become a mess, if you don't pay enough attention. Does not matter which model.

So why bother with big models, when flash models are 10x cheaper and much faster to iterate under guidance? Large models can be used for security and bug audits. Flash models work almost the same for changes under 300 LOC when you dictate how you want your code to look.

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It's pretty simple; organizations are willing to tolerate paying $1500/month/engineer, which seems to be roughly inline with "normal" consumption for most full-time engineers. If that number grows significantly, then I bet companies will start exploring flash models more, as you propose.
They are willing to tolerate it now, which is quite a switch up from the free for all we had a few weeks ago, and if they aren’t able to tie in this new ~$1500p/m cap to demonstrable productivity and revenue increases then that will be kneecapped even faster
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> organizations are willing to tolerate paying $1500/month/engineer

One organization, that is a software company

> which seems to be roughly inline with "normal" consumption for most full-time engineers

My peers are using $20/mo plans, only a handful are using more than $100/mo in tokens. We haven’t had any limits imposed yet.

Which organizations?

Uber is not representative of any trend beyond big tech and VC over funded startups.

The easy decision is to just go with the biggest SOTA model you can afford.

But this overlooks the other critical part of getting the most out of these things: the harness. I run an autonomous plan/design/code/build/test pipeline with agents using my own orchestrator. Different models are better at different stages, and I use LLMs to judge the output between them. Not everything needs Opus 4.8.

The harness provides both the scaffolding to get the right things into the model, and the right things out. But it also lets you dictate which model does which work.

It's the pipeline, not the model, that gets you quality at a given token budget.

Is your argument that $1500 / mo is too much? Why would the engineering team not be more rigorous in their model selection given a constraint?
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I wonder to what extent models should figure out which model to forward a query to. Or perhaps the big models could learn the difference between an easy and a hard question and charge accordingly? Perhaps, if it can measure complexity, even generate a quote?

Small models are fine for small coding tasks but I don't see why big ones can't be broken down most of the time.

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This a thousand times. The bigger models also have a habit of overcomplicating things.
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> Don't ask LLMs for big changes

> Review everything and point them in the right direction

Sorry upper management doesn't care. That's an engineering problem that you need to solve.

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I'm legit annoyed at opus 4.8 at any setting above 4.8.

I believe it can be great for vibe coding, but mundane day work? Hell no, I'd rather work with Haiku. It's too slow, checks too many things, it's annoying as hell.

> That means each employee's AI spending cap is ~11% of that median compensation package.

Probably better to use the fully-loaded cost of the engineer, which is much higher than their compensation package. The fully-loaded cost is the total cost paid for the labor power of the engineer, and it includes big ticket items such as office space, food, equipment, insurance, payroll tax, fringe benefits, recruiting costs.

If the median compensation package is $330k/year then the median fully loaded cost is probably around $450-500k.

My usual rule of thumb for the US is north of double the received compensation but something in that range sounds reasonable with such high compensation. It's actually really interesting and underappreciated how that fully-loaded cost varies from country to country. Canada (for most salary ranges) is about half again instead of double owing to the insurance portion coming out of income tax rather than being a hidden expense so Vancouver ends up being attractive for trading 160k USD for like 120k CAD in compensation and then also lowering overhead from 100k USD down to like 60k CAD. The savings can be extremely dramatic.
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> $330k/year

For a traditional software engineer? I retired last year after 3 decades and my salary was about the same as it was in the early 2000's at the last company I was at. Maybe I should have negotiated more but I thought only FAANG paid traditional pre-AI engineers more than $250K.

250k for base pay is about in line with median I'd say.

If 250k was the total comp (taking into account bonus/stocks/what have you) then yeah, you definitely should have negotiated.

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I’ve even heard the rule “twice the salary” being used here in EU, but the tax and insurance burden may be higher. All kinds of those are based primarily on total payroll amount.
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Both metrics are valuable.

If one uses AI minimally and is able to out perform peers who are maxing out AI spend, one might want to use that in salary negotiations.

"$330k/year" Lol. I thought I clicked on hacker news 2022.
Is it too high or too low? Honestly cannot tell
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It’s also worth noting that’s the peak benefit. Expect most engineers to not hit those limits on the regular (if at all, since limiting this puts skills in focus again), and that limit to come down over time as the easy processes are automated and humans are re-tasked with harder problems relative to their TC.

This is not a good bellwether for the AI industry, including its adherents. Their growth assumed a level of indispensability that’s not being reflected in hard numbers and real costs, which lends credence to the notion that these IPOs being fast-tracked are meant to try and cash out before the bubble really pops in earnest. There’s no way consuming enterprises are going to pay such insane costs for such minimal uplift in the long run, and the AI companies can’t keep offering subsidized tokens via subscription plans at their current pricing.

Why there are so many people that still believe that AI coding is a fad? It's something that started less than two years ago and companies are already paying thousands per seat. I know one that gives you 5k per month. Which other tool went from nothing to this level of acceptance so quickly?
Because companies are betting that this spending will allow them to reduce cost by firing people.

Right now the AI LLM PRs we're seeing are just introducing more work for other people, while these so-called builders are looking good with their new dashboards and functionality they're demoing.

But you can't talk to them about the flow of the code. You can't ask them for their thinking as to why certain things are.

It's not built up from the ground with experience from x people taken into account. It's materialized from nothing, with no foundational separation, and barely any abstractions.

No one wants to touch it. The PRs are too large, and the 'authors' of the PRs aren't on call with us.

They get all the glory, but do none of the work.

It's kinda like designing a house and then sending it to an architect and engineer saying: make this work.

> But you can't talk to them about the flow of the code. You can't ask them for their thinking as to why certain things are.

You can absolutely do this. It's even right most of the time.

Let's be real. Most of the time you ask an LLM "Why did you do it like this?", it responds with something along the lines of "Oops. My bad. You're right to point this out."

You even have a fair chance of getting a response like that when there isn't anything wrong and the question wasn't rhetorical - which perfectly illustrates the level of the genuine understanding LLMs operate at.

When you criticize AI, always remember that the alternative is the average employee. Today's models are pretty good.
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> the alternative is the average employee. Today's models are pretty good.

I have never seen anywhere in the world people that hates so much the working class as people do in the USA.

In my country the average employee is competent, they do their work and create wealth for the nation.

Again, only in the USA people think that billionaires are the ones creating value. Total non-sense indoctrination.

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> But you can't talk to them about the flow of the code. You can't ask them for their thinking as to why certain things are.

There are plenty of valid criticisms or warnings about over-reliance on AI coding, but this is not one of them. Today, I am using a semi-autonomous agentic coding system which has an `interview` functionality built in - when it spits out the PR from the input, if you have questions about the motivation or context for a particular choice, you can start up a clone of the original agent in a sandbox to question it.

Now, you might claim that those responses aren't always reliable, accurate, or consistent, and that claim has a little more weight (though, in my experience, decreasingly so) - but it is _certainly_ not the case that you cannot interview an agent about choices made. I'm literally doing it every day.

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> Because companies are betting that this spending will allow them to reduce cost by firing people.

I've never worked at a company that didn't have a technical backlog measured in years.

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Literally in the middle of ripping apart a vibe coded mess at work to figure out what's even worth keeping. Not fun :(
use ai to do that
What happens if you just keep vibe coding is? Does it whack-a-mole fix one area and break another?
It's so fucking bad. I'm watching a team try to maintain a huge dashboard/control application that interfaces with a large amount of hardware using solely AI workflows.

Literally nothing works, all the timers/time counters are different across the pages, constantly commands hardware to do stupid shit, breaks during critical moments/in front of clients.

Eventually mgmt had to institute change freezes for high profile events because the team was breaking too much shit all the time.

The average C suite dipshit doesn't realize that the performance drops off a cliff once your project is more than some fraction of the context window so they will make pretty dashboards all day long but once you need to cover all the edge cases of a real system it all explodes.

AI isn't trained on the type of software style we'll need to create systems using AI, it's trained on how we used to write software. It doesn't reuse code or elegantly structure annoying, it just adds more code until the thing builds and passes some fake tests, even if half of it is functionally dead/unused.

That's just a non sequitur. "companies are already paying thousands per seat" has zero correlation with something being a fad or not. There are much more reasonable rationales explaining why companies are acting the way they are than "because AI coding is not a fad"
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I would use these exact facts as a sign that it's maybe not what it seems. It's much too big and too fast to feel stable. It might keep at that level, increase even more, or drop down to a saner level of use / allocation.
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Fear of loss to competitors embracing a technology creates a fear driven adoption.

Let me ask you this: is any technology worth so much break-neck adoption without first seeing clear evidence of ROI? No. The adoption is irrational.

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There is a whole spectrum between "ai coding is a fad" and "unlimited tokens for every employees we don't even care if it actually ends up being a net positive financially"
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“AI coding is a fad” is not just one big camp of similar-minded people. Different groups have to give up on their pre-existing beliefs in order to be ok with AI coding.

Think of people who were very strict with variable names. People who pushed for multiple-levels deep of abstractions for a single API logic that’s not going to be reused. People who believed that coding is craft, rather than just a process to get to the end during work hours. This makes most of these people’s points more-or-less moot.

I was in some of those camps, but I’ve seen coding evolve in the last 15 years. So I understand that these priors need to be updated, as most arguments don’t apply to today’s world.

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Because the vibe coded stuff is sometimes great, sometimes it breaks stuff, sometimes it breaks things that we fixed multiple times earlier. The PRs are too large, nobody can review that mess and you better be on call for your deployment. Maybe it will get better, maybe not. I dont know yet.
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perhaps the personal computer? Companies were spending 3-5k (10-15k inflation adjusted) on every employee for just hardware.

everyone making comparisons to the dotcom bubble seems misguided. this is clearly computing 2.0 imo

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I still believe Scrum is a fad and yet companies have been spending obscene amounts on to push it down developers' throats for decades now.
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> Which other tool went from nothing to this level of acceptance so quickly?

NFTs? My company had nothing to do with blockchain but I ended up working on NFT integration regardless.

>Why there are so many people that still believe that AI coding is a fad?

Because there's not a single piece of evidence that this has improved the quality of the delivered software, or for that matter even the speed of features any of these companies produce, in fact if anything the opposite.

The point of software development, the hint is in the name, is to develop software, not consume tokens. If Uber was now full of 10x engineers the stock price of Uber would be up, not down on a yearly basis. Hilariously enough the only company whose stock price is up appears to be Antrophic

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Because writing huge amounts of code is easy for humans too. Agents already proved that they can do it. But are agents able to maintain it? I do not know and unless I know for sure, I am not fully committing to AI generated code.

i.e. I am able to write about 1k lines of code of "acceptable" quality per week. Which means in 1 year, there will be about 5Ok LoC. I am pretty sure, that I would have to spent like 60-80% of time to maintain 1st year code and the rest to make new features in the second year so I would have to hire more people and spent time to onboard them to maintain velocity. All of that are rough estimates, probably overoptimistic and way worse in 3rd year. Good luck doing such estimates with code agents. Even worse if you already have huge amounts of legacy code.

Why are there so many people who mistake simple anecdotes for actionable data? Why do the majority of businesses fail rather than succeed?
Because we have spent a lot of time and money using AI to generate code and have been unimpressed with the results.

As for why they got accepted so quickly 1) the industry's long running desperation to deskill computer programming 2) the addictive psychology baked into LLMs "That's an elegant solution! Shall I ... ?"

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It's cope. People desperately want to believe that AI coding is going away so that they can go back to partying like it's 2020.

So there's a huge number of HN posters claiming that the price of tokens will go UP over time rather than down (that's how Moore's Law works, right???) or that code bases that AI contributes to will spontaneously combust, or something.

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$1500/mo is $18,000/seat/annum.

Maybe Microsoft and Nvidia are on to something.

128 GB machines that can run local LLMs are a bargain even if priced $5-8k. Yes, tok/s is not quite there, but that's probably OK since the bottleneck really isn't the code; it's WTF did Uber build with all of that spend? How did it meaningfully impact their revenue in a positive direction?

How is tok/s not a bottleneck I? I assume most people still use ai agents interactively rather than leaving them to do their own thing during the night.

I find anything below 50 tps or so entirely unusable...

Regardless its Apples to oranges anyway, inference is quite cheap for open weight models its just that Claude and OpenAI can charge very high margins compared to e.g. DeepSeek or various provider on OpenRouter since open models are a commodity.

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I think companies will eventually just buy a local AI server.

Using local hardware is expensive when it's running a complicated software stack that can break in 10,000 different ways.

These eventual local AI servers will just talk some protocol for AI and sit in the corner and nobody will think about them.

I guess they still might need access to various systems, so idk. Eventually I think someone will offer "AI in a box" though, running the latest open model or whatever.

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I agree on the basic point, but running $1500/mo's worth of SOTA local AI is non-trivial already, and that's a figure for a single seat. That's equivalent to generating at least 20 tok/s on a 24/7 basis, in fact probably quite a bit more than that (because open-weight models are vastly cheaper than proprietary ones even when served from reputable Western providers - reaching the same spend would take around 100 tok/s or more, which is well within datacenter hardware territory).

You could probably reach the former figure on a prosumer platform but only for very special workloads. If you spend a lot of time on prefill (which is common for agentic workloads) the outlook is even worse since that's a significant constraint for any on-prem AI.

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You’re way better to run your own on premise models. Laptops are depreciating assets, do not benefit from economy of scale, have fixed specs, result in a fragmented fleet where you need to keep models up to date. Without talking about power consumption and cooling issues. I really don’t see why companies would go that direction
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> it's WTF did Uber build with all of that spend?

You can ask the same for the median 330k salary in the US for Uber Engineering... and being a bit snarky, attending Uber engineers talks here and there at a few conferences, looks like. they love to (re)invent internal tooling/platforms. That's pretty expensive on its own.

EDIT: I'm not saying that Uber's engineers didn't add value to the company, they absolutely did and handling the scale up they had to handle is not an easy feat. But I do challenge the notion of "what features did they create with that (LLM) spending?" of GP.

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128GB machines can't run anything locally that is even nearly as capable as a frontier model like Claude. We can get an idea from deepseek v4 pro being 1.6T model, requiring approx. 860GB VRAM to run.
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at their scale they could also just run a large on-premise or rented (basically still cloud, but cheaper) GPU cluster and run through that. fixed costs, even license a SOTA model’s weights if you’d like
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> How did it meaningfully impact their revenue in a positive direction?

It probably allowed them to avoid hiring as many people to build a certain amount of software. Even if it didn't increase revenue, it could have lowered human labor costs.

> 128 GB machines that can run local LLMs are a bargain even if priced $5-8k.

Don't forget the energy costs. Searching around, advanced models use an average of 25 Wh/1000Tok.

$1500/month gets you about 150M tokens.

At the aforementioned energy/token, that's 3750kWh.

What are your local office electricity rates/tariffs? (Hint: they are going up because of AI data centers). Even if my price and energy assumptions are wrong above, you probably aren't going to get the rates that the hyperscalers do.

Even at cheap (i.e Texas) retail electricity rates, that many tokens will probably cost you hundreds per month. In most other electricity markets, probably far more.

How much more software does Uber need?

Unless they are iteratively replacing expensive vendors and optimizing other headcount costs?

{"deleted":true,"id":48383750,"parent":48383618,"time":1780493313,"type":"comment"}
Right - the future of LLMs is like ol' windows XP+Dell. Commercialized "things" you run locally offline, co-designed with hardware, with a known productivity suite, and large businesses building the next generation thing and suite with 18mo release cycles (ish).
XP? I can see the argument for enterprise support but in that case the latest windows OS is going to be virtually free and I dont know if MS and Dell etc. would even support an XP machine. Might even be required for hardware. If no enterprise support wouldnt Linux make a lot more sense?

I get that if it's offline the security downside of XP doesnt matter, and I assume XP is free, but being free doesnt really seem that valuable compared to alternatives (free linux and virtually free OS if buying wholesale).

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I don't think it's necessarily what Uber build, but the gained productivity. If the engineers use the AI tools the correct way, it can drastically increase the productivity and that means they can actually use the LLM as a junior or an associate engineer. $1500/mo is way cheaper for that level of productivity where as they would have had to pay far more for a human engineer.
Even if companies decided to move away from expensive models from the major labs, it probably much more economical to pay a cloud provider to host some open weights model which could then be amortized across all (internal) users and do inference at a substantial batch size, rather than giving everyone their own hardware -- which means the company would need to provision for peak usage and inference at batch size of one.
Your last question is really important. What did they accomplish with all that spend?

I suspect there’s some mass delusion with respect to actual accomplishments as a result of LLM use. Sure, things are moving faster, but does it matter?

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If you believe a 128gb machine that is essentially DGX Spark in a laptop chassis can run models comparable to SOTA you either never ran open models on hard tasks, or you aren't scratching the surface of SOTA closed LLM capability in how you're using them.
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I am wondering more and more if this becomes true as these smaller models take off. I might be old fashioned but I have yet to crack the workflows some of the hype people spout like Claude codes Boris where he and others talk about running hundreds of agents overnight.

I have still found the sweet spot for me is using LLMs but I am still in the drivers seat.

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>WTF did Uber build with all of that spend? How did it meaningfully impact their revenue in a positive direction?

Uber (and quite a few bay area companies and startups) can afford to spend that money. There is no expectation of profit, Uber lost ~62B and growing: https://uberlosses.com/

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$1.5kpm for SOTA. 128gb you run DSV4 Flash.
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> WTF did Uber build with all of that spend?

WTF did anyone build with all that spend? Despite all the feel-good anecdotes about how productive folks feel using ai coding tools there's a deafening silence when it comes to actual, demonstrated efficacy. How can we be this far entrenched in these workflows and still not know whether they actually do anything useful?

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The real answer?

Software engineer quality of life.

There can be an increase in productivity without a corresponding increase in total output. The gains could be captured by software engineers doing a days work in an hour then fucking off in a variety of ways.

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I think probably the correct spend is something closer to 10x that if people can figure agent coordination problems out. It's not even really about capability at this point, it's about keeping track of what agents are doing.
You can't get an edge using local models, these guys may have competitors that will spend on SOTA models. They won't likely ever consider local machines even for some offloading scenarios, the complexity and costs will be even higher.
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18k/yr? None of the LLMs generate anything like that in value!
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I use the $100/mo sub but my 30 day API cost is about $1700/mo.

It really depends how you use it, if you're using prompts to generate detailed designs, breaking those into lists of tasks, and then feeding those to multiple agents - it's really easy to burn through many thousands.

If you're being more deliberate and using a few agents at a time interactively, having it review PRs/resolve issues, automated clean-ups and performance optimization, etc it could be more like $1500.

If you're just throwing it one-off questions like a better stack-overflow that is well under a $100.

I've really gotten into /goal, if you can find something verifiable and leave it overnight - it's kinda like christmas morning to see where it landed.

Plenty of comparisons here between salaries and token costs. All fair but very much assumes that salaries are rational. Why do we pay some engineers 10x as much for the same role just because they are in a different location? The WFH discussion surfaced some of that. If money is cheap, all sorts of funny things are happening. Is it worth to spend 1500 USD on AI? I don’t know. Is it worth paying engineers 300k USD instead of 30k? Honestly, I don’t know
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The $1500 number is less interesting than the fact that they hit a ceiling at all. Most engineering teams I've talked to have no idea what their AI spend is per developer because it's buried in a consolidated cloud bill. Having a hard cap forces two useful conversations: what workflows actually justify API calls vs local inference, and whether the output is being measured against any real productivity metric. Without that feedback loop it's just a race to see who can burn tokens fastest.
Both the Anthropic and OpenAI "Enterprise" plans include per-developer analytics:

Anthropic: https://support.claude.com/en/articles/12883420-view-usage-a...

OpenAI: https://help.openai.com/en/articles/10875114-workspace-analy...

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Just to put this in context. If every company did this, all over the world, with that same limit, we are talking about something around $45B monthly in revenue for all AI companies to share.
There are a lot of places in Europe where 1.5k$ is more than 50% of the total cost of an employee.

And the obvious question: what it's the cost of that revenue? Because it looks huge but ...

Don't you forget about India and Latinamerica... No way I see companies paying that much for outsourced employees
One could hire a competent developer here in Brazil for that amount. I know because my workplace has hired competent developers for that amount. You can even call them senior developers, but you can't get "non-startup seniors" with actual experience, those expect a bit more.

I just wanted to take their number at face value. It's not like it needs more real information to make AI a bubble.

Are you saying there are only 30 million people employed in white collar jobs in the world?
About 30 million software developers. At least that's what a quick web search says.
It is not only for devs

https://openai.com/index/codex-for-every-role-tool-workflow/

So, are companies paying that amount for people at other roles to use it?
45 billion / 1500 $ is 30 million workers. How did we arrive at 30 million?
I think maybe he meant specifically for software engineers?
World bank says there are 3.7B employed humans. Putting the total addressable market at around 67T if all of us spend USD 1.5k on tokens every month. This lines up well with current forecasts from the major AI labs
> Putting the total addressable market at around 67T if all of us spend USD 1.5k on tokens every month

However, that's an absurd scenario.

{"deleted":true,"id":48393135,"parent":48392701,"time":1780541881,"type":"comment"}
Congrats, you're hired at Anthropic.
well, you couldn't justify the cost if you still employed all 3.7B
That's a bold assumption. Increasing costs by roughly $18 000 per employee worldwide is highly unlikely. For reference even at FAANG in Europe, that would be a 7-15% cost increase for a senior developer. More like 15-30% for non FAANG and even more for non-European markets.
I don't think it's a bold assumption, but I also don't think the assumption would lead to the conclusion.

1. Why it's not a bold assumption: it's a bit shocking now. But in two years or so, many/most companies will realize this is the cost of doing business. Just like people are ok with using Outlook, or Office 365, or (in the case of Wall Street) Bloomberg terminals, people will realize that developers will need AI coding assistants.

2. Why the conclusion does not follow from the assumption: if the limit is set at $1500/developer/month, it does not mean all developers will use it. Companies will set incentives for people to not be very wasteful. It is more likely that on average developers will consume $100-200 worth of tokens per month, and there will be some outliers who will consume 10, 100, or 1000 times as much, but they'll be few.

> Office 365

An entreprise license for 0365 is something like $75 per person per month. Totally different order of magnitude.

And regarding Bloomberg terminals, Bloomberg only has 1 million users (semi random guess).

The reality will be that some places just won't pay for any licenses or will try to set up their own, local LLMs.

I think the main thing companies should try to understand is avoiding the use of 'claude -p'.

I definitely have written a goal file, and then just ran claude in a loop over the goal in order to 'token max'... why not? I'm doing research and have some clear KPIs where research into all kinds of techniques / tuning can improve the results. I can spend my budget on a "experiment with blah blah blah to improve blah blah" or give it a list of things to try that I know will take awhile.

Its no problem hitting hundreds of $ of API spend while sitting at a computer with 3 monitors have 6 windows of useful claude code interactive sessions, while working on 2 or 3 projects and using worktrees, and it's a little weird when you hit your limit by 2 o'clock and have to wait for token budgets to reset; god forbid, I manually edit code... which I did do for the first time in months.

You can also start to generate a lot of token spend if you do something like "hey make me a stylized slide deck using internal skill / agent XYZ based on commits A through C", which as an engineer, makes presentations building much less painful.

This uber limit is not high compared to the big SV companies.

I also randomly wrote some code in a bind yesterday, while I was on the toilet, and it felt so strange. That was the first I'd written in probably 6 months.
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1,5k. For two months of that spend you could buy a machine that can self-host decent models, plus a year's worth of electricity. It's not up there in terms of quality, but with a bit more effort it works pretty decently. I'm completely baffled that that's not way more common, is it really just the quality?
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Lock-in / switching costs are increasingly concerning me. I am using Claude for a good year now and have been accumulating so much "knowledge" in there by now. If Claude became less favorable in terms of price/performance in the future, that would worry me. I've started to think about a distributed solution, where my storage is detached from the inference, but currently Claude is still the way to go for me. Wondering if anyone has similar concerns?
Isn't all the "knowledge" just text files? I've transitioned between services easily by simply copying the text files.
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This.^ I realized this first when moving a design spec from Claude chat to Claude Code and panicked. I literally had to build something like Notion but for agents to act as a portable memory between all cloud and local models and agents. But honestly it paid off!

If you are interested you can try it out at markbase.cloud (disclaimer and all that). I am not charging for it.

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What knowledge?

Unless you work in some obscure domain, chances are that any general "knowledge" Claude has "learned" is already public data somewhere.

If you don't believe me, launch Codex and immediately start working on the same project (s). You might discover that all the knowledge accumulated means almost nothing.

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Not worried at all. Switching is trivial. Rebuilding context isn't very difficult and harnesses are a dime-a-dozen.
My favorite solution to this is to use the Cline coding agent, which is open and allows you to easily switch between different providers and models.
Knowledge in there?

Where is the knowledge stored?

All of my knowledge typically gets stored in plans outside of the agent?

And each agent window gets archived regularly, anyways.

I use Claude every day. Often for multiple hours a day. Basically doing my job not worrying how many tokens I spend (as in too many or too few). This is a pretty complex code base (database optimizer and related).

Just looked at spent for the past 30 day, didn't even come to $600. 95% of my tokens are from cache. If I were to reach even $1500 I have to let claude run unsupervised over night (and with the amount of mistakes it still makes and guidance it needs, I do not believe we are there yet.)

> didn't even come to $600.

That's still in the ballpark. A modest change in your usage habits or workload could easily get you there.

is this with a subscription or pure API billing?
Why isn't self hosting (even just renting a GPU server, not necessarily on premise) at large companies or hosting via something like together AI to run the open weight models not more common? I've tried the open weight models and the premium models like Opus and Gemini Pro, and I find that the latter are a little better, but not nearly to the degree to justify the extreme price difference, since the differences largely don't matter for what I've tried them for, and I expect that many other users likely have similar use cases.
If the premium models are just about 10% better - that could justify the price vs. self hosting a ~0.5-1T open weights model.

Remember that utilization of these huge racks will not be 24h/7, and these are usually not GPU intensive shops that would train models on the spare compute. With prices of 100-200k USD and north with ~2 years lifetime, that would be hard to justify financially.

Self hosting could easily amount to ~1000 USD a month amortized across many developers. In rush hours - there will be hard rate limits.

Would that 1500-1000=500$ monthly USD justify the 10% decrease in "AI Productivity" ? I guess not. In most cases.

For everyone that asks me around, I'd say that in short term, unless there's a really good reason to self host these coding assistant models, then the big 2/3 coding assistants providers are the better choice.

No one got fired from licensing claude code.

I just went through a similar discussion in my $WORK (traditional finance company on NYSE with average IT expertise) and I think the thought process is as such: it's one thing to just give your stellar dev/hacker a beefy GPU server and run whatever model they can run; it's another thing to maintain such platform for company wide. You would need human resource (likely way above normal software dev paygrade) to understand and maintain such models, maintain backend, availability etc. All these extra hassle make it just easier to pay a top tier external lab + slap a reasonable spending limit on everybody.
Why do you think it would be more common? The pooling of GPUs to serve multiple users and connecting to docs/datalakes while respecting security controls, as a start, is non-trivial. You'd end up paying a team to manage that.
For the same reasons companies are not building data centers for their "regular" hosting and storage needs but put things on AWS, Azure etc.

It costs money to maintain the hardware and hire experts to manage the services. For something as common as LLM models, there is absolutely no reason a company serves models on their own hardware unless they are maniac about sending bytes to AWS.

There’s probably plenty of money to be made in LLMs as a service - but not enough time has passed for the commodification to occur. I’m with you in that when the dust settles I don’t think any of the frontier model providers will have a moat. Just like during the dotcom boom a catchy URL and a webpage that could accept payments wasn’t a moat, either.
Where are you buying the GPUs to have enough compute to run a medium size buisness?
> I've tried the open weight models ...

You tried that on a personal machine for yourself once. It's completely different calculation when serving a model to 3000 employees with ever evolving hardware and software requirements. You'll need dedicated hardware in data centers and experts to run them. A company will need to figure out how to manage acquisition, assets and expenses plus 1000 other things, in addition to its actual business. Guess who has figured out all of that already? AWS/Azure/OpenAI etc.

Do you think companies are gonna be like?:

Wait a minute. We didn’t save money by adding AI. We just added an expense.

Now we have to pay for employees AND AI.

$300/day at Apple, with an increase to $500 with manager approval.
> A $1,500 monthly limit per tool strikes me as a rational policy response to over-spending,...

> I noted that my own token usage comes to about $1,000/month against each of Anthropic and OpenAI - which currently costs me just $100 per provider thanks to their generous subsidized plans for individual subscribers.

This whole article seems to me like Multi level marketing "businesses" where 'Diamonds' have made their money by promoting MLM in seminars and telling hopefuls at bottom that "Buying AI subscription now is their one shot to be a winner in life"

Perhaps there is something to MLM vs LLM to create a FOMO effect.

That's just Simon Willison since LLMs came out. It's glaringly obvious that he's a paid shill.
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> That means each employee's AI spending cap is ~11% of that median compensation package.

when looking at costs - numbers make sense. however decisions as an org/company/solo founder - costs help you set prices, but to reach profitability you want to model around ROI.

now the question is what's the ROI for a $36K/investment per engineer or $90M for the total org ?

I bet the ROI is negative.

I'm in a similar boat - it's hard to measure, but let's say you pay an engineer 150K. Giving them a tool that costs 15K a year is effectively a 10% increase in that expense.

If we were seeing 3X, 5X etc improvement from individual engineers, that 10% increase in expense would be a fantastic investment (even 3 engineers for the price of 1.1??!). I have a feeling they are just not seeing that much of an improvement.

And $1500 a month is on the very high end of where most companies will land. When you run the numbers there isn’t a realistic path that connects the dots between likely market size and the claimed valuation of the AI companies. The math simply does not add up.
A blanket cap makes no sense to me. There's a power distribution of AI use in my company and I'd imagine it's the same at a much greater scale at Uber.

I'd guess there should be a few people Uber is bascially allocating unlimited AI spending to and a large swath they're giving basically nothing.

I would assume that at least one of two things are true:

1. They're costs are so so out of control that they need to impose a blanket cap immediately. Figuring out an allocation mechanism that can be deployed company wide is time consuming and they need to staunch the bleeding immediately, despite it being obviously suboptimal.

2. The few people who should have unlimited tokens were given exactly that. No reason to introduce such nuance to a public PR move. The hard-cap limit is a great negotiating posture with token providers.

That's a lot. On my usual day I burn less than $1 on Opus. I could get beyond $10 only if I have a complex and well-defined problem, which is rare (the second part at least).
You must not be using coding agents. You can sneeze and spend $1 on Opus in Claude Code.
These are still at currently subsidized prices. We'll see if they think they're getting $1500/month of value when that buys significantly fewer tokens.
There is no evidence that per-token inference prices (which is what Uber is setting a cap on) is subsidized.
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Is there any evidence that it's not?
The fact that Anthropic models are offered at the same API pricing by not just themselves but AWS, Azure and Vertex despite Anthropic taking a major slice on licensing along with the cost an open weight 1T parameter model like K2.6 costs to run on any third-party provider, make it unlikely that API inference cost are subsidized by the labs.
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afaik, enterprise plans are not subsidized. its 20$/seat+api pricing. Unless you are saying api pricing itself is subsidized.
This is market introductory pricing that hasn't factored in cost recovery. Most of it has been run on early investment with the assumption they will recover costs in the long run. The prices are subsidized across the board and they will need to go up signficantly to recover them.
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True but they will raise prices slowly so people will optimize their workflow so they aren't just throwing as much inference as fast as possible like the current state. Right now you should do everything you wanted to try out because it is cheap (as long as you don't become dependent ... the risk).
I understand current Codex $20 sub is worth about $480 GPT5 api credits.
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The inference prices for very large open models would indicate that Antrophic's and OpenAI's margins are quite large.
It's not. They recently forced enterprise customers onto API billing instead of the cheap consumer pricing. Now the pricing is brutal.
If a worker doesn't use their AI/LLM budget, can they get a raise?
probably will get fired for lack of performance.
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no because it does not come from the same budget
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I wonder what they are doing with $1500 per month. I'm on Claude Pro $20 plan and I'm doing well. That's 3 days per week. On the other 2 days I'm using a customer's Claude Max, I don't know if it's the $100 or the $200 plan, but I'm sharing it with some of its other developers.
$1500/mth is token pricing.

Your other plans are fixed price with rate limits where you get more tokens than the dollar equivalent you pay monthly. These plans are economical only if majority of users spend less tokens in $ than the plan's costs. This subsidizes the gap vs. power users who spend multiple k$ monthly in API tokens.

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I'm on a $100 Claude Max plan, my usage is only about 50% of the plan limits, but in the last 30 days my usage was equivalent to API token spend of $1850. If you save all your Claude Code conversations, the saved files include API costs and you can calculate this yourself.

One of my most expensive sessions cost me over $100 in token spend in a single evening. I'd just found out that the time tracking & invoicing SaaS I use is increasing their monthly pricing by 2.4x - so I assigned Claude Opus 4.8 to recreate the entire SaaS for myself, and load in 13 years of my historical data. I've only completed a full read-only implementation so far, with adding & editing of records still to come, but I do expect Claude will have fully recreated the entire SaaS for me at an API cost less than a single 1 year seat of continued subscription to their service. And since I'm actually on a Max plan, it didn't actually cost me $200 of tokens at all.

coff i would not buy the Bending Spoons IPO coff saaspocalypse

I could ramble on about where the other $1750 of usage goes, but I imagine it's similar for most heavy Claude / AI users. Interactive coding sessions, a daily personalized podcast, some automated overnight agentic "proactive" sessions, a daemon that wakes up if I send Claude an email or voicetext to check something when I'm out. I've also noticed that if Claude's tool-use goes haywire & Claude gets confused or lost, sometimes a single email reply session that would normally be just $1 of API might spiral to $12 of API while it bangs its head against trying to run a program that's in a different folder to the one it's currently in. Sometimes a simple 'pwd' would save you a lot of headache, Claude....

Uber is likely on an enterprise plan - these charge tokens at API cost, which can be much more expensive than the $20 flat rate.
It's also a useful signal for AI value. Looks like it's a max value add of $18,000 per engineer per year.
No, that's not what it means at all even if just doing it purely in math terms. Really it is just a reasonable amount to cap at to stop the long tail of super spenders (tokenmaxxers). You could also call it "the amount of AI spend after which Uber has decided there is diminishing returns for the average engineer".
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It's not so simple to determine and generalize how much value AI adds. It's going to be different on a per-company basis and a per-engineer basis. It's also affected by the competitive market place and how many other companies are using AI for their engineers.

For example, what if you're a tiny startup and you're considering whether to hire an extra engineer or do all the coding yourself. I would estimate that AI is worth far more than $18,000 a year in that situation where you might reasonably decide to put off hiring an engineer.

I find it really doubtful anyone has managed to quantify that in any meaningful way. Seems like mostly an arbitrary number. Also the article does claim that's its actual several times more than 18k if you are fine with using Codex, Cursor or etc. when you Claude tokens run out.
Their initial budget for determining how much value AI adds is $18,000 per engineer.
Not really. There are clearly diminishing marginal returns, so it's likely that the first $2,400/engineer/year adds >>$2,400 of value, even if 18,001st $/engineer/year adds <$1 of value.
It means Uber thinks they can sustain that level of expense. Whether engineers at Uber are representative of the rest of the work force is an easily debatable question.
It's among a wave of fresh "non-insane" takes on AI in the enterprise. Maybe we can reel things in to a sustainable level before a giant bubble bursts.
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How are people using so many tokens? I'm on the $200/month enterprise plan for Claude Code (because it's a better deal than the API pricing) and I don't come close to the limits.

If you use stuff like opusplan and /advisor so you use Sonnet for most of the work and only Opus for the really complex stuff then it's quite easy to keep costs low without affecting performance.

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This week an S&P 20 company with previously unlimited Claude limits also set a $250/mo/person limit; though its unclear to me how widely the limits are being enforced, may be the case that its just non-software engineers. Do with this info what you will.
In my experience, this is far below the cost the average dev will incur per month so this seems very reasonable to me. And, no doubt there are exceptions for heavy users so they can get some extra token usage when they need it.
unless they changed something in the like 2 months (edit: besides implementing a cap for claude code specifically, since other tools already had caps) since ive left my job there im pretty sure 1500$ is the very max you can use after maxing out free calls, initial budget, then 2 extensions individually reviewed by your manager

higher ups pushed for these last 2 years to be AI focused so I don't think this restriction is a measure of "don't use too much AI" as much as it is a measure of "don't use only 'manual' AI tooling" since we had a dozen more specialized tools in-house running locally or otherwise that didn't count towards the budget

Uber engineers reported that loading their workspace and pulling recent commits exhausted that AI limit for Claude Code (4.8 x-high) immediately.
I don't think loading up a single context window costs $1,500. Which limit are you talking about?
It finally puts a number on productivity gain of engineers with AI. This is probably less than 10% of the cost of an average uber developer. So they don't assume much more productivity gain from AI than 10%.

(Cost of an employee is much higher than their salary, it includes things like office space, supporting structures like HR/accounting, insurance, hardware/software, and much more)

But is it an accurate number? Does AI reach diminishing returns after $1,500/month, or is that all they are willing to risk/burn to stay in this game?
Uber is in the business of experimenting with robotaxis and automated food delivery.

They can't say that $0 per employee is the appropriate amount for AI spending. So they capped it, perhaps in order to "send a signal" that is eagerly picked up by the AI boosters.

There is no signal. Uber does not work any better since AI. They still want to promote AI, so they chose the highest number that doesn't bankrupt them so the press and AI promoters pick it up as the new price anchor.

Probably they'll quietly reduce the number more soon.

Is this inside knowledge, or speculation?
Its a lot when using Chinese models, less when using Opus 4.8
1) This happened because they fundementally misunderstand how to use AI and how AI is priced 2) Most organizations are throwing everything in for analyses and not limiting the answer they want. You need to be specific of about what you analyze and what answers you want 3) People undervalue prompting or templated responses. I will have written. validated and sanity checked a prompt several times and run it across several models before I say its ready for use. But when it is, I know what it will give me and that the scope of its research and answer is as close to what I want as it can be. As little excess as I can. This all saves tokens
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It's probabaly a good things that Uber-developers are now forced to do some coding on their own. Only use AI where it absolutely helps
Or be smarter about their usage. $50 on tokens per day can get you a long way.
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I don't think at $1,500 you're not forced to code on your own at all, in the sense of typing code. You're simply forced to not yolo-max twelve parallel agents at all times.
The big question is, will the productivity gains be absorbed by the needs? Societies don't have a need for infinite amount of luxury and laziness offered by the productivity of the machines. At some point, you would shake off things, get up from the couch and start walking again, breathing afresh.
It still probably produces better results than some junior engineers in a lot of cases.

But yeah, for a company at Uber’s scale, I can see why they would want real engineering discipline around it.

Due to recent Copilot price increase my friend was capped to $70 per month of usage. Not on a subscription…

My $100 subscription is not cheap. At the same time our product burns orders of magnitude more tokens.

The tool categories that pay for themselves fastest: (1) Anything that gets invoices out faster and makes it easier for clients to pay. (2) Scheduling links that eliminate email back-and-forth. Everything else is optimization. I keep notes on which freelancer tools hit each threshold at freelancerkit.surge.sh
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I think the logical follow up will be for Uber to lay off a bunch of people so that the remaining ones can token maxx.

To the mooooon!

If you estimate 10k salary per engineer that means the moment it’s cheaper for them to hire another engineer but that doesn’t mean it’s improving productivity 15% but if 15% is the moment it stopped being better than another human we can assume 7.5%?

Probably even less because you would spend those 1500 extra per employee also if you just save 10% so 150 per employee that’s 1.5% on salary.

This is imho one of the best ranges we can assume for now how much would that be on the whole swe market?

Seems odd limit, especially since it highly dependant on Token provider used, with Opus this is not much and could easily be burnt in a week or less, but with something like deepseek the 1500 can literarily be an annual budget.

That being said, I do have to wonder why someone as bug as say Uber, simply not rollout OSS model in the cloud for their team, I'd imagine that would be cheapest & most flexible option, while also keeping all the data shared with LLM private.

It’s not just about the model but also setting up the system to create and share compute (GPUs) which is quite complicated on its own. Ubers primary business focus isn’t infrastructure.
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eventually tokens will cost price of energy. and china is miles ahead.

china will be major token exporter soon. mark my words.

Electricity actually is only a small part of the data center costs. There are challenges in getting enough electricity that create problems, but the cost of the electricity really isn’t an issue.
Technically, tokens travel both ways.
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If I were paying API rates this year, I would have already burned through $20k in tokens. Looking forward to the costs of this level of capability coming down.
Reading the headline

Oh that's actually really economical! I wonder if they're doing a lot on locally running models or managing a shared context or knowledge-base in some clever way, maybe just encouraging employees to be efficient and mindful.

...

> each employee

...

> per AI coding tool

...

> I noted that my own token usage comes to about $1,000/month against each of Anthropic and OpenAI

What on this godforsaken earth are all you rich idiots doing???

Is anyone doing story point estimation in terms of tokens? If you have a token budget, does this change how you prioritize?
I think there's too much variance between what model you're using and how much you turn your brain off. If I just paste a ticket number into 4.8xHigh its going to use a lot more tokens than if I read the ticket, tell Sonnet what it needs to do, make my commit, run unit tests myself, etc.
I'm curious how much of the usage comes from vibe coding vs using agents/harnesses in internal tooling
If budgeted at $1,500/month per user, power users still can get 5-10x of that allocation if the user pool is large enough.
I think a lot of people are missing that this is $1500 _per tool_ which is still rather a lot of money.
Outside of coding what other tools expend that kind of tokens? People are not creating that many slide decks or videos are they?
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If china captures the market now, well deserved. Way cheaper compared to us providers.
A lot of talk about cheaper models here. Just curios, is there any non-Anthropic model that can do UI well? GPT-5.5 is laughably bad, and I'm never restarting my Anthropic subscription after their 6-month sprint of gaslighting, even if opus was really good at UI.
Related:

Uber’s COO says it’s getting harder to justify money spent on tokenmaxxing

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48268871

Uber torches 2026 AI budget on Claude Code in four months

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47976415

Corporate America Is Starting to Ration AI as Cost Skyrockets

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48335388

They are also beholden to enterprise pricing and can't use the subsidized consumer max plans.
Token costs rising because data center build costs must be paid down.. is not the whole picture. It is actually possible for token costs to fall despite the spending frenzy.

Naively you’d expect to always keep paying more - but growth in token usage is what changes the equation. Amortizing debt over an exponentially growing amount of spend across a growing customer base (not per customer) lets the debt be paid off & costs covered even as each individual’s spend stays steady or even goes down - but it only works if there’s growth beyond some threshold that makes the whole thing hang together. No one on the outside knows how much growth that is, and everyone chases maximum growth.

Jevons Paradox ends up being your friend as well as the friend of the inference providers as well as the friend of the inference financiers.

If it’s a strong enough effect, it has potential to cancel out all the circular financing too, and let everyone ride out the bursting of the bubble.

ccusage for codex tells me the medium feature I prompted in codex, with a $200 subscription, running for 72 hours and still not delivering full result would have cost ~ $2200 at API rates.

I also misconfigured something in my agent's configuration and a simple web tool request (maybe 4 turns) through OR went to GPT-5.5 accidentally and that cost me ~$0.4.

I have no idea how any business can afford API rates without having a mindset of casually setting money on fire.

China will bring down the price per million tokens.
Why are people getting these high spending numbers? A 200 USD subscription for either Codex or Claude should give you plenty of usage. What am I missing? Are they just being dumb?
The subscriptions are not available to enterprise users. Enterprise users must pay per-token. A $200 subscription gives you roughly the equivalent of $1500 in per-token billing.
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What is the point of allowing a developer to spend $18,000 a year on AI subscriptions? Can't they hire a decent developer who is capable of producing a quality solution faster? Clearly, these decisions are all made by high-level management team.

I was recently talking to an HR person from a European company, and she goes: 'We are forcing our developers to use AI coding agents, but they are still kind of hesitant.' This person had never written a single line of code, nor did she know what software engineering is. For these people, using AI coding agents = faster delivery without breaking anything.

It costs a lot more than $18,000 to hire a decent developer, pretty much anywhere in the world. Also using a model is better than another developer in some ways, because there aren't two independent minds trying to work with each other.
I still have never hit a ceiling with my Claude Max $100 account, much less the Max $200 account. I'm not burning tokens needlessly, nor running it all day, but I do use CC almost daily. What are these devs doing that they are burning more than $1500 in tokens a month?

Maybe it's just me, but I still find that I really have to "shepherd" the AI and work with it to get the results I want. And I read every line of code added and challenge the model's logic. So that limits my token burning. Maybe these people are just "vibe-coding" without really checking the results?

I would not be surprised if they have engineers vibecoding 2-3 projects each simultaneously, nonstop, on largely un-moderated review-suggest-iterate-test feedback loops.

All the code gets summarized and fed into their manager's agent contexts, probably duplicated several times across levels and departments, with some generated back-and-forth emails pinging around the org chart, eventually generating 2-3 long-winded reports that nobody will read chock full of generated visualizations that can all get consolidated into a generated slide deck that they'll show (maybe, at some point) to a handful of humans with more money than a human brain can conceptualize to demonstrate all of the innovation they're doing.

I am increasingly convinced that many of these companies are dead trees whose only function is to burn money lest it fall into the hands of the peasantry.

You are paying account pricing. Uber is paying API pricing.

You're $100/m plan is likely equivalent to thousands of dollars of API pricing. You are being subsidized by the companies using AI.

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just don't care about the output. Produce more. Don't check the results.
I have strong conviction that companies will now choose tech stack/programming languages based on 'tokenomics'. I am vibe coding using Clojure, a language I can read but cannot write and I never hit the usage limits even when using the latest model on Claude. I have similar experience with F#, which is a bit more verbose than clojure but absolutely beats every OOP language, Python, Typescript etc.

The reason, I use F# & Clojure is they hit JVM and CLR, two popular enterprise stacks.

In my not so humble opinion Lisp(Clojure) still remains the language of AI.

Typescript is also hugely represented. My projects are TS in a big way, where I have no experience with it at all.
They want to replace employees with AI, then replace paid AI with unpaid AI.

Their wet dream was never automation. It was zero marginal cost labor. And that dream is starting to rot.

Why aren't they using Claude code 20x for 200/month?
if you have more than x seats, you have to use Enterprise pricing as far as I know which is pay as you go with a pool.
It's wild; at my shop in Silicon Valley they dropped us from unlimited use to 60% prem budget on copilot. People are walking around like zombies.
Poor people! Thinking takes calories
no....the fact that you could buy a reasonably prices MAC or AMD395+ thats AI tool pricing; it loads a big enough model and spits out tokens just fast enough that you can read what it's doing and comprehend it instead of magic.

That's the most useful signal. Pre OpenAI mafia RAM pricing, that comes out to $250/month.

A lot of things can be done with local models.
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Even more things can be done without any models just as well.
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It's interesting to me how ineffective LLMs are at refactoring, but when you think closely about how they work, it makes sense.

They are good at searching for things that have been done 10,000 times before, and slightly changing them. This is the majority of all "new" features.

Almost nothing is "new"...

Refactors are not this. If you can't just write a gsub to do the work, they need to essentially break it up into N problems to solve, each of them pretty slow and expensive. Sure, none of these problems individually are "new" - which is why they can do it. But they can't do it as effectively as you'd think.

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Good point about the unit of consumption shifting from prompts to agent loops. That makes pricing even trickier for vertical-specific AI tools.

We see this firsthand building AI Workdeck (open-source AI workspace for legal teams). A single due diligence review might chain 20+ agent calls: OCR -> text extraction -> clause classification -> risk scoring -> evidence chain assembly. The user sees one action, but the backend burns through significant inference.

The interesting thing about vertical tools is the pricing model can be fundamentally different. Horizontal tools charge per seat or per token. But in legal, the value is in the document, not the seat. A lawyer reviewing a 500-page M&A file gets way more value than one reviewing a 2-page NDA.

Self-hosting changes the calculus too. Our users run on their own infra, so the AI cost is whatever their GPU costs. That makes $1,500/month caps less relevant and throughput optimization more important.

LLM generated comments are against site rules btw.