> naively assuming the demand will also grow as technology matures.
I don’t think this is naive at all; it’s quite rational that demand increases as price decreases, which does seem inevitable.
Most of the "laws" of economy in this form say often as a footnote "all else being equal", which remains to be seen. Otherwise you can justify any attempts at price decrease in any industry the same way.
> I don’t think this is naive at all; it’s quite rational that demand increases as price decreases, which does seem inevitable.
But that's not what OC is saying, isn't it? Frontier models becoming better and cheaper at the same time are not a given.
Near-frontier models that have 99% of the capabilities of frontier models, at a tenth of the cost of frontier models, might ironically be what pops the bubble.
1. What you want changes as the market does, in the way people use agentic coding now rather than just cheaper versions of Cursor autocomplete
2. Frontier labs are cheaper than open-source models too
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