> I don’t think this is naive at all; it’s quite rational that demand increases as price decreases, which does seem inevitable.
But that's not what OC is saying, isn't it? Frontier models becoming better and cheaper at the same time are not a given.
Near-frontier models that have 99% of the capabilities of frontier models, at a tenth of the cost of frontier models, might ironically be what pops the bubble.
1. What you want changes as the market does, in the way people use agentic coding now rather than just cheaper versions of Cursor autocomplete
2. Frontier labs are cheaper than open-source models too
CPUs (and a million other things) got better and cheaper with time, I see no reason that AI would be any different.
The distinction between frontier/non-frontier models doesn’t matter much here, for the overall market. With CPUs, for example, Pentiums got better and cheaper while Cyrix/AMD did the same.
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Is there seriously a non-frontier model out there that can do what Opus 5.5 does? I can say: go look at a ticket in Jira and figure out how to fix it, write end to end tests for it, make sure it aligns with previous architectural decisions we've recorded in documents, and then test it, summarize all the testing you did, and open up a PR for review?
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