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viktorcode | on: I'm not convinced the AI bubble exists
The author talks about revenue growth on the basis of Anthropic's S-1 filing, but ignores the third quarter results which were posted later.

The growth slowed and operating profit has swung to a loss. The company can still make money, just not at a pace that has a chance to pay off the investments.

Also, the author conflates AI's technical potential with the market potential, naively assuming the demand will also grow as technology matures.

i5heu | parent | next
Looks like "Non-GAAP Adjusted Operating Income" is still +4bn$ ... if i read this correctly.

AFAIK GAAP Operating Income has stock compensation packages in it and is susceptible to valuation changes(?)

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026...

(I have not much experience with that stuff so please do not take that as reliable information and more as a question)

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cobbzilla | parent | next
> naively assuming the demand will also grow as technology matures.

I don’t think this is naive at all; it’s quite rational that demand increases as price decreases, which does seem inevitable.

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lopis | parent | next
Demand will also grow as technology matures, if that maturing means more efficient and cheaper models. We're already at a stage where only a very small niche cares for better more complex models.
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aurareturn | parent | next

  The author talks about revenue growth on the basis of Anthropic's S-1 filing, but ignores the third quarter results which were posted later.
But the AI industry doesn't consist of just Anthropic.

As far as I know, Q3 for Anthropic wasn't the best because:

* OpenAI killed it with their models in Q3

* US Government ban on Anthropic models, including temp restricting Mythos/Fable

* They decided to dedicate more compute to training in Q3 instead of inference

* Opus 5 was a disappointment and Fable 5 was too expensive to inference

* They saturated all their available compute in Q3 and didn't have anymore to sell

Their growth rate has ramped up in Q4 since Opus 5.5 if OpenRouter data is a good proxy.

viktorcode | root | parent | next
> But the AI industry doesn't consist of just Anthropic.

That is not the claim. Author uses Anthropic's filing as an example indicating growth of the whole industry. While questionable on its own, it is also not given in full, which I pointed out.

philipwhiuk | root | parent
The competition is also a problem tho. Both of them are betting the house pretty much on winner takes all. If competition reduces growth, that's a sign that they both can't fulfill all their promises which ipso facto means one or both is overvalued.
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FinnKuhn | parent | next
I know this is a bit of an ad hominem attack, but it is hard to take the authors arguments seriously as they also argue that the imperial system is superior to the metric system because people in Italy apparently state their height as 183cm (in real life everyone would use 1.83m) and that calculating things using the imperial system is easier as well...
sjdh76 | parent
This is just general comment to all the excitable kids over here.

Anthropic is one company in a gigantic ecosystem.

You want to understand the eco system. Got to flyover the jungle, not just stare at one elephant herd.

Read annual reports of NVIDIA, atleast one from Microsoft/Amazon/Google and atleast one representing activities of Enterprise projects (Accenture/IBM/TCS). Then look at govts budgets/programmes for AI US/EU/UAE/S.Korea.

Do it with a group like a book club.

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