The author talks about revenue growth on the basis of Anthropic's S-1 filing, but ignores the third quarter results which were posted later.
As far as I know, Q3 for Anthropic wasn't the best because:
* OpenAI killed it with their models in Q3
* US Government ban on Anthropic models, including temp restricting Mythos/Fable
* They decided to dedicate more compute to training in Q3 instead of inference
* Opus 5 was a disappointment and Fable 5 was too expensive to inference
* They saturated all their available compute in Q3 and didn't have anymore to sell
Their growth rate has ramped up in Q4 since Opus 5.5 if OpenRouter data is a good proxy.
> But the AI industry doesn't consist of just Anthropic.
That is not the claim. Author uses Anthropic's filing as an example indicating growth of the whole industry. While questionable on its own, it is also not given in full, which I pointed out.
The competition is also a problem tho. Both of them are betting the house pretty much on winner takes all. If competition reduces growth, that's a sign that they both can't fulfill all their promises which ipso facto means one or both is overvalued.
Sounds to me like the market isn't big enough for both of them. So how much growth is left?
For the AI bubble, competition is good because it would mean better cheaper services and products.