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dyslexit | on: Anthropic S-1
To be more specific:

- 161.2B w/ Broadcom: 2026-2031

- 120.5B w/ SpaceX: 2026-2029

- 114.5B w/ Google: 2026-2033

- 110.0B w/ Amazon: 2026-2036

- 44.9B w/ Microsoft: 2026-2033

- 44.6B w/ Nscale: 2026-2033

- 41.3B w/ Lambda: 2026-2034

which is around $63.7 billion / year if spread over 10 years, but with most of it due earlier than that.

smallmancontrov | parent | next
Isn't the SpaceX contract cancelable with 90 day notice? How many of the others are too?
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nostrademons | parent | next
On a side note, these are pretty hefty portions of the total revenue of these companies. 161B with Broadcom over 5 years is about 32B/year; that's fully half of their 2025 revenue. 120B with SpaceX over 3y is 40B a year, more than double their 2025 revenue and almost triple 2024. 114B with Google over 7 years is about 3% of their total revenue and about 1/4 of all Cloud revenue. 110B with Amazon is about 9% of their AWS revenue.

If Anthropic's revenue story doesn't materialize and the AI bubble bursts, these companies are in a world of hurt. It's probably not fatal for Google or Amazon but would be a major drag on the stock price (perhaps why Google has dropped from 400 to 315 over the last couple months as the AI story soured), and it could be company-ending for Broadcom or SpaceX if they end up building out infrastructure to service these commitments.

I remember before I left Google, one of the TGIF questions (which are now AI syntheses of many peoples' individual opinions) was "What happens if AI is a bubble and it bursts?" His response was "If that happens, the whole industry is in trouble." I see now what he meant.

brightball | root | parent | next
SpaceX will just use the compute directly if they don't have buyers. They are already talking about the data center shortage as well because they can't get capacity elsewhere either. It's a weird problem to not be able to use your own data centers because you rented them out.

Between SpaceX, Starlink, Tesla, Neuralink, X, Grok, Grok Bot & Cursor there's not a demand shortage.

Grok Bot's the fastest growing product in the history of the company and the moment you use it, it's clear why. Took me about 1-2 days to realize I'd have a very hard time going back to not having it available.

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mirekrusin | parent | next
from what you've written it's more like:

- 2026: $97.08B

- 2027: $97.08B

- 2028: $97.08B

- 2029: $97.08B

- 2030: $66.96B

- 2031: $66.96B

- 2032: $40.09B

- 2033: $40.09B

- 2034: $14.59B

- 2035: $10.00B

- 2036: $10.00B

Total: $637.0B

Considering everything that is cancellable, ie. hard commitment only, it's:

- 2026: $56.79B

- 2027: $56.79B

- 2028: $56.79B

- 2029: $56.79B

- 2030: $56.79B

- 2031: $56.79B

- 2032: $29.93B

- 2033: $29.93B

- 2034: $10.00B

- 2035: $10.00B

- 2036: $10.00B

Total: $431B

If they go bankrupt, there are some more cancellations available, also from the other side – if some providers don't deliver, it can be lower as well.

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Espressosaurus | parent | next
If we assume none of it is front-loaded (which seems, uhhhh unlikely) we're looking at ~$100 billion a year for the first 4 years of commitment. That's significant.
egeozcan | parent | next
https://tinylittleoffice.com/write/#/v1/write/yZVWxTsMwEN39F...

Got the numbers on a spreadsheet. Of course this is a super simplistic version assuming equal yearly commitments.

cavisne | parent
It’s been rumored but this is a pretty huge TPU dependency. Assuming Broadcom + Google is TPU spend.
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