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Humans are very expensive, so the equation almost always falls against them.

It's not just salary, but also safety/labor regulation, legal risk, vacations, sick time, personal conflicts, HR, benefits.

Even when automation is more expensive on paper, it's generally still cheaper

> Humans are very expensive, so the equation almost always falls against them.

You underestimate what these models cost. Uber's budget is $1,500/dev/month. I gather that was put in place because the dev's were going through $6,000/dev/month, which Uber decided could not be cost justified.

Fable costs at least twice as much, or $12,000/dev/month.

Fable can apparently work for hours without supervision, which means a skilled engineer can now have it working on many tasks concurrently. I would not be at all surprised if they can put a nought or two on that number. If you do that, you are well out of "what a human costs" territory.

> I would not be at all surprised if they can put a nought or two on that number.

People keep saying this and it keeps not happening.

ChatGPT Pro was $200/mo when it launched in '23 for a ~100B class model with 8k context. Claude Max is now the same price for practically unlimited access to a ~1T class model with 1M context.

Moore's Law never died, it just switched architectures.

One of the large (and enjoyable IMHO) challenges in this line of work is developing a de facto understanding of your process and the context it's in service to, and that's only possible if you're actually on your industry equivalent of a "shop floor" for each domain the project touches.

As far as I can tell this part of the job isn't really on anyone's radar anymore.

Good to know that LLMs will be removing all regulatory and legal risks, as well as creating a consumer economy that no longer employs or pays consumers.

I can't help thinking there might be some kind of strategic issue here.

Perhaps someone should ask Mythos about it.

By the point where we have work hours regulation for AI, all of our current debate about AI will be long irrelevant because we've clearly achieved AGI
That's the beauty of these AI advancements. You, a human, will have to compete against a model for the same job.

If you get $100,000 per year as a SWE, and Anthropic offers a coding model for $100,000 per year (but working 24/7), then you'll have to give up all of those addons that make the fully burdened cost of the employee. Say goodbye to vacation, sick time, benefits, etc.

> "What have you got against machines?" said Buck.

> "They're slaves."

> "Well, what the heck," said Buck. "I mean, they aren't people. They don't suffer. They don't mind working."

> "No. But they compete with people."

> "That's a pretty good thing, isn't it--considering what a sloppy job most people do of anything?"

> "Anybody that competes with slaves becomes a slave," said Harrison thickly, and he left.

Kurt Vonnegut, Player Piano