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If the removal of standardized testing in 2021 was the real reason, then why is there a sudden spike of failure rates happening right now?
It takes time to work through the system and it has been steadily getting worse.

It was already discussed on HN.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48309233

I'm having a difficult time imagining how an admissions event in 2021 materializes in the spring semester of 2026 in a class largely taken by first-year students.

Could you explain?

It didn't just suddenly materialize.

From the current article

In addition to overreliance on AI, Garcia also pointed out that many students are underprepared mathematically, a concern echoed by campus associate teaching professor Gireeja Ranade.

From the article discussed the other week:

Over three years — from fall 2021 to fall 2023 — the letter said, at least 20% of Berkeley first-semester calculus students who took a diagnostic exam showed deficits. “Basic mathematical fluency is analogous to literacy; without it, success in university-level STEM becomes structurally unattainable for students,” faculty wrote.

It's been steadily getting worse. The current article only looks at F's which conveniently hides if there has been a slope down. Additionally, kids entering HS in 2021/2022 would just now be hitting college.

> It didn't just suddenly materialize.

A sudden materialization is what's depicted by the data.

> It's been steadily getting worse.

I don't believe this is accurate. Failing grades are what the observation entails, and the data clearly depict an abrupt change; not a gradual one.

In the section titled "Failing grades in 3 CS classes skyrocket in spring 2026 ", there's a clear jump in failing grades for all cited courses between 2025 and 2026. Failing grades for every course jump by multiples of the previous year.

The jump is very likely due to AI usage and lack of skills in mathematics. It seems like prerequisite classes are not being fulfilled.

"Ranade said students are expected to enter the course having taken classes on linear algebra, vector calculus and mathematical proofs. However, she found out in office hours that many students struggled with linear algebra, and was even more shocked when one student told her the linear algebra class they took at UC Berkeley had an “open-internet, open-AI policy” for homework and exams."

Also, this professor doesn't grade on curves? Could be very specific to this teacher. I don't know. Would be great to have more data but it is a big jump and could be very specific to this professor or perhaps this class.

> It seems like prerequisite classes are not being fulfilled.

FWIW I did a little digging, and EECS 127 indeed has explicit prerequisites of:

* Math 53 - Multivariable Calculus

* Math 54 - Linear Algebra & Differential Equations

* CS 70 - Discrete Mathematics and Probability Theory

This suggests the students are either taking those classes or have provided some kind of AP/test-taking credential to skip them.

"Also, this professor doesn't grade on curves? Could be very specific to this teacher. I don't know." Someone has to hold standards up -- they seem to be falling down across the board in education.
Actually, when I read they usually graded on a curve, I lost all interest. I don't respect teachers that grade on curves.

You should be graded by how well you know the material - not how well your peers don't know it. I'm always grateful both my undergrad and grad professors didn't curve on a grade.

In my first company, I had 4 different jobs. It was a common adage: Go into a low performing team that does simple work and you'll get promotions much quicker than in a high performing team doing challenging (but fun) work.

It was right. I had 2 "dream" jobs where I did cool, challenging stuff, but where everyone was more than competent. They turned out to be career killers. The promotions I got were all in the other 2 jobs where I did boring business logic coding, and where my peers were barely competent (one had trouble navigating directories using the command line).

That's what happens when you grade on a curve. Smart people begin to work on boring stuff, and not the real challenges.

For failing grades sure, there must be some sort of minimum competence. For sorting out >= B/3.0 grades, a curb can work since you are getting evaluated against your peers to see he is standing out vs just doing acceptable.

If you wanted to grade purely off a curve, you would be stuck with old test problems that were thoroughly vetted and calibrated, an impossible task for smaller classes where the material changes rapidly.

> For sorting out >= B/3.0 grades, a curb can work since you are getting evaluated against your peers to see he is standing out vs just doing acceptable.

I'm still not getting it. For a standard course, the criteria for what is "good" vs "great" should be pretty clear, and it should be independent of your peers. You have a syllabus, and a set of abilities for each grade level. If you hit those targets, you get the grade. If half the class gets an A, then it means they're pretty smart, or you did a great job in teaching. Of course, there's the chance the class was too easy, but you can always fix that.

No, I don't see why you're stuck with old test problems. For standard engineering classes, there's a huge (almost infinite) set of problems one can create.

For smaller classes, grading on a curve is even sillier, as the variance is always higher when the population size is small. For example, a lot of my small classes consisted of highly motivated students (all "A material"), because they're usually obscure electives where the content is challenging. You then pointlessly penalize students who sign up (just like they do at work). In fact, my professors were usually much more lenient on small classes for this very reason (i.e. lowering the standard needed to get an A).

I once took an Intro to Analysis course. It was moderately challenging. I got the highest score in the class, and my grade was A-. Everyone else got B+, B, or lower. A friend of mine (who didn't take the course) got really upset that I didn't get an A (or A+) given that I was the top scoring student.

But I knew my level of understanding/performance. It wasn't that great. I felt even an A- was too high a grade for me. And the teacher did a pretty good job in teaching. Why should I get a higher grade just because the other students were worse?

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SAT/ACT math is incredibly simplistic and at worst maybe contributed by not filtering as many out. Math scores have been declining nation wide for decades now, that’s been a big issue for a while.
One big reason is preparation, people start preparing for tests 2 to 3 years in advance. And the method of testing influences exams used in grades before as well.

So assume 4 years of high school and someone that just came in. They are still preparing for SAT like tests in their first year of high school. Someone in final year of high school is well trained in it. So even though the benefits do not carry, enough portion of incoming students are still reaping benefits of standardized tests. The decay only shows later when batches without any benefits of standardized tests are coming through.

> people start preparing for tests 2 to 3 years in advance

Pardon? Is that a normal thing in the USA? I don't think I've ever started preparing for a test more than a week and a half ahead, a month if you count graduation exams. Not sure they ever determined more than a year in advance (more commonly: a bit less than a semester) what tests we'd be given in the first place

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That's not what this actual data shows. While there has been an increase math deficiency, the increase in failure rates happened recently and probably only partially related to the math preparation issue.

I think we will make a major mistake if we think math preparation fixes this - especially in CS classes where AI literally calls out to be used for projects. And it certainly doesn't explain me hearing the same problems are happening at MIT -- they just are being a bit wiser about "catching students" (or rather not doing so).

I'm guessing the kids who didn't do the standardized tests at/shortly after 2021 were already prepared for it.

The kids who saw the removal of standardized testing 3 years out from going to college never bothered.

It takes time for students to work their way through the system.
In the spring, but not the fall?
Wouldn’t this change be evidenced right away after the elimination of the test as criteria if the test was responsible
No probably needs a couple more years. Writing the test itself is motivation to do well in HS math. If that no longer becomes a driver probably takes off the drive in other courses over a couple years. I bet without the SAT as a standardized test a lot of HS math courses are easier for the teacher because the quality can lapse.

Also some children who excel write their SATs sometimes 2-3 years before college and then re-write if need be.

Not if kids are prepping for the test in a way that results in real gains. Which seems likely, especially in the age of AI: "should I actually study math or just use ChatGPT to pass this course?" One semester of coasting through might not do that much harm, but at some point the compounding effects will tip you over the edge.
Define "right away". How long after taking the SAT does a child have their first classes at university? At least a year?
There's always a lag between cause and effect in education.

Works the other way too - if you introduce something positive in grade 1, you'll only see the results a few years later.

If it's a lagging effect, then why is the year-over-year spike in failure rates happening not just in 1st/2nd year classes, but also in a 3rd/4th year class at the same time?
Good point. I'm inclined to think it's because of a quality threshold in chatbots.
Entrance tests predict academic success , not 1st year success.

"Failure to complete the qualification" is the prediction.

Testing was the annoying flood barrier. AI is the rainstorm that shows why it was necessary.
This pattern reads heavily LLM in style, but also... that is spot on.