I suppose everyone reading this thread counts as "well-informed" then, right? All I have to do is move my 401k into the bond-heavy fund right now and then back into the stock-heavy one when everything craters is what I'm hearing. It's what you're doing, right?
I'm informed enough to see what they're doing and why, but I'm not informed enough to know how to prevent them from wrecking the economy for normal folks while enriching themselves. I don't think information alone can solve the problem for the majority of people. Retirement accounts aren't often easy to change, non-retirement accounts have tax consequences, timing the market as a normal retail investor is risky.
I don't really have advice. If I were directly holding an index that tracks the Nasdaq 100, I would get out of it, and take the tax hit. But, I suspect the impact and risk will cascade outward. Nvidia has exploded in price based on actual revenue (though I suspect it will be temporary, and have to come back to earth in time). SpaceX is entirely fantasy land. It doesn't have revenue to justify anything like the price they're launching the IPO, and when indexes are forced to buy it, everyone holding those indexes provides exit liquidity for the same scammers who've been hyping it.
isn't this also "timing the market"? which most people agree is a bad idea
The whole concept of passive investing depends upon some large number of people timing the market. Just not you. It is predicated upon the concept that you are not good enough to make your own decisions. Usually that's true, but sometimes it isn't.
You are giving up equity premium for the time till everything settles. You will also not know when that is. It's going to be more like a long term ticking bomb that may take years to detonate.
Years? The way people are talking in this thread it's all an AI exit scam, which shouldn't take years to play out. It's a popping bubble, remember?
loading story #48369118
loading story #48373210
loading story #48368648
Wouldn't it make more sense to move it after the IPO? The supposed scam here is that Elon et al will dump their shares and crash the value, but that cannot happen for 90(?) days after IPO. So I think you should let your index buy the inflated IPO, then sell it before the crash, not sit it out entirely.