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I disagree. It will be able to perform work deserving if a fields medal before it is capable of running a McDonalds. I think it will be running a McDonalds well before either of those things happen, and a fields medal long after both have happened.
I just visited a McDonald's for the first time in a while. The self-order kiosk UI is quite bad. I think this is evidence in favor of the idea that an incompetent AI will soon be incompetently running a McDonald's.
Recently I tried to order at a Subway (which has decent quality food outside of the USA). They have kiosks. The kiosk only responded to touch about 60% of the time and took two seconds to respond. The employee who could've easily taken my order was just standing there bored. The future is here and it sucks.
> which has decent quality food outside of the USA

Is there something wrong with their food in the USA?

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Out of curiosity, what issue did you have with the McDonald’s self-order kiosk? I actually think McDonald’s has the best kiosk I’ve ever encountered. The little animation that plays when you add an item to your cart is a little annoying (but I think they’ve sped that up). But otherwise, it’s everything I’d want. It shows you all the items, tells you every ingredient, and lets you add or remove ingredients. I have a better experience ordering through the kiosk than I do talking to a cashier.
It takes longer than ordering with a cashier, it keeps trying to upsell you, and it's always out of receipt paper because unsurprisingly the company that isn't willing to pay a person to take orders is also not willing to pay a person to maintain the kiosks.
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Since you asked, and since I take my kids to the McDonald’s play place some weekends, and I’ve actually spent a bit of time pondering my ideal kiosk UI and what I don’t like about theirs:

It seems designed to maximize how many screens they show you to make an order. Each one with a slight delay and animation.

At a drive through I can say “gimme a number one, medium, with a Coke Zero” and they give me my total. That’s the convenience the kiosk is up against.

At the kiosk there’s:

- A welcome screen you have to tap

- A “carry out or dine in” screen

- Always one other screen with a dumb question about apps or whatever, tap through

- A top level menu with a bunch of categories, burgers, drinks, sides, desserts, etc… I guess I want burgers? But it’s a combo, hmm. I guess I’ll figure out how to make it a meal. Tap burgers.

- Then another screen with burgers, in a different order than the drive through numbering, tap Big Mac

- Then another dedicated screen to shows you a picture of a Big Mac, with a bunch of customization options, which you have to scroll past and verify that it matches the defaults you expect, and at the bottom you can tap add

- Then another screen asking you if you want to make it a meal

- Then another screen asking the size

- Then another screen asking what to drink

- Then another screen that shows you the drink

- Then another screen for what size

Etc etc etc. Each of these screens takes a few seconds to display too, just slow enough to be infuriating.

In my mind the ideal kiosk is something where you get “the menu” (like what you see on the billboard in the drive through) with the usual big squares with a number on them and a picture of the meal. Tapping one puts it in a “drawer” section with my order in it, and each item in the drawer can have simple in-line edit controls for “size” and “what to drink”, with them showing up empty in a way that makes it obvious I need to fill in those answers before I can check out.

I should be able to tap one button for the combo number I want, another for the size, another for the drink, then checkout, all on one screen without long delays. If I don’t want a combo but want individual items, I can just scroll down a bit to look at the full menu. The order drawer stays where it is.

Or hell, just let me say “number one with a Coke” and have a very simple ASR and NL parser figure it out and put it in my pending order to edit.

Customizations can be behind a simple “customize” button on each item in my pending order. If I don’t have customizations I can just ignore it. What you get with no customizations is what you’d get if you just order it verbally to a human without specifying anything. The concept of “here’s how we typically make it, if you want anything different let us know” is a very deeply ingrained and familiar concept to restaurant patrons, and being forced to answer every little question even if you don’t care, adds up to a lot of frustration.

Fast food places came up with the combo numbering system to make ordering faster, and it was super convenient and fast, because there’s a financial incentive to get you through the drive through because you’re blocking other customers. But since they have several kiosks available, they seem to not care at all about the efficiency of the user interface, because it’s not a problem for them. But it’s still a problem for me, because I still want to order quickly, despite it not blocking other customers. It’s a huge step down from just saying “number one with a Coke”.

>The self-order kiosk UI is quite bad.

Most repeat customers use the app, which sports the digital equivalent of a loyalty program, and various coupons. And lets you save your 'usual' order with customizations etc. Plus the annoying push notifications for FreeFrydays or whatever. And upsells, new product launches, etc.

My recollection is that the kiosk is just a weak facsimile of the app. And wasn't terrible, but everyone's standards vary.

> Plus the annoying push notifications for FreeFrydays or whatever. And upsells, new product launches, etc.

Which is why I will never reinstall their damned app.

The app doesn't work on GrapheneOS :(
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One could hardly ask for a task better suited for LLMs than producing math in Lean. Running a restaurant is so much fuzzier, from the definition of what it even means to the relation of inputs to outputs and evaluating success.
I think Lerc is saying that LLMs will be pressed into service managing McDonald's restaurants long before they are actually capable of managing said restaurants successfully.
Not necessarily. Obviously playing Kasparov on the board requires more planning ability than managing a McDonald's but look at where chess bots are now.

There's much more to being human than our "cognitive abilities"

> Obviously playing Kasparov on the board requires more planning ability than managing a McDonald's

Not obvious and in fact I think the opposite is way more likely. Chess is well-defined and self-contained in a way that managing a restaurant with fleshy customers never will be.

That's true. I should clarify by saying I meant that a human playing on par with Kasparov obviously has the planning ability to manage a McDonald's
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Conjecture: the first AI to successfully manage a McDonald’s will be a Gemini.
They no longer have to limit themselves to forking software but can do a global Google Burgers in a single prompt. It will no doubt be a huge success before shut down.