Controversial opinion from a casual user, but state-of-art LLMs now feel to me more intelligent then the average person on the steet. Also explains why training on more average-quality data (if there's any left) is not making improvements.

But LLMs are hamstrung by their harnesses. They are doing the equivalent of providing technical support via phone call: little to no context, and limited to a bidirectional stream of words (tokens). The best agent harnesses have the equivalent of vision-impairment accessibility interfaces, and even those are still subpar.

Heck, giving LLMs time to think was once a groundbreaking idea. Yesterday I saw Claude Code editing a file using shell redirects! It's barbaric.

I expect future improvements to come from harness improvements, especially around sub agents/context rollbacks (to work around the non-linear cost of context) and LLM-aligned "accessibility tools". That, or more synthetic training data.