>This means the step function has more predictive power (“fits better”) than the linear slope. For fun, we can also fit a function that is completely constant across the entire timespan. That happens to get the best Brier score.

I mean, sure. but it's obvious in that graph that the single openai model is dragging down the right side. Wouldn't it be better to just stick to analyzing models from only one lab so that this was showing change over time rather than differences between models?