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This is so much money with which we could actually solve problems in the world. maybe even stop wars which break out because of scarcity issues.

maybe i am getting to old or to friendly to humans, but it's staggering to me how the priorities are for such things.

For less than this same price tag, we could’ve eliminated student loan debt for ~20 million Americans. It would in turn open a myriad number of opportunities, like owning a home and/or feeling more comfortable starting a family. It would stimulate the economy in predictable ways.

Instead we gave a small number of people all of this money for a moonshot in a state where they squabble over who’s allowed to use which bathroom and if I need an abortion I might die.

> we could’ve eliminated student loan debt for ~20 million Americans. It would in turn open a myriad number of opportunities, like owning a home

I'd give the money to folks starting in the trades before bailling out the college-educated class.

Also, wiping out numbers on a spreadsheet doesn't erect new homes. If we wiped out student debt, the portion of that value that went into new homeownership would principally flow to existing homeowners.

Finally, you're comparing a government hand-out to private investment into a capital asset. That's like comparing eating out at a nice restaurant to buying a bond. Different prerogatives.

Couple things that aren’t accounted for:

A) this is a pledge by companies they may or may not even have the cash required to back it up. Certainly they aren’t spending it all at once, but to be completely honest it’s nothing more than a PR stunt right now that seems to be an exercise in courting favor

B) that so called private capital is going to get incentives from subsidies, like tax breaks, grants etc. It’s inevitable if this proceeds to an actual investment stage. What’s that about it being pure private capital again?

C) do to the aforementioned circumstances in A it seems whatever government support systems are stood up to support this - and if this isn’t ending in hot air, there will be - it still means it’s not pure private capital and worse yet, they’ll likely end up bilking tax payers and the initiative falls apart with companies spending far less then the pledge but keeping all the upside.

I’ll bet a years salary it plays out like this.

If this ends up being 100% private capital with no government subsidies of any kind, I’ll be shocked and elated. Look at anything like this in the last 40 years and you’ll find scant few examples that actually hold up under scrutiny that they didn’t play out this way.

Which brings me to my second part. So we are going to - in some form - end up handing out subsidies to these companies, either at the local state or federal level, but by the logic of not paying off student debt, why are we going to do this? It’s only propping up an unhealthy economic policy no?

Why is it so bad for us to cancel student debt but it’s fine to have the same cost equivalent as subsidies for businesses? Is it under the “creates jobs” smoke screen? Despite the fact the overwhelming majority of money made will not go to the workers but back to the wealthy and ultra wealthy.

There's no sense of equity here. If the government is truly unequivocally hands off - no subsidies, no incentives etc - than fine, the profits go where they go, and thats the end of it.

However, it won't be, and that opens up a perfectly legitimate ask about how this money is going to get used and who it benefits

I really really don't get it. You (US) all saw it coming. Everybody knew voting for the dark side would funnel money away from poor and middle class towards the rich. Is it a dementia outbreak? Can someone shed a spark of light on the mechanics of all this crazyness?
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Also, there was lip service to relaxing regulations on building power plants (just for the data centers) and data centers, but it remains to be seen how much of this can be accomplished with just the federal government.
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The problem with allowing student debt to rack up to these levels and then cancelling it is that it would embolden universities to ask even higher tuition. A second problem is that not all students get the benefit, some already paid off their debts or a large part of it. It would be unfair to them.
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> Instead we gave a small number of people all of this money for a moonshot in a state where they squabble over who’s allowed to use which bathroom and if I need an abortion I might die.

AFAICT from this article and others on the same subject, the 500 billion number does not appear to be public money. It sounds like it's 100 billion of private investment (probably mostly from Son), and FTA,

> could reach five times that sum

(5x 100 billion === 500 billion, the # everyone seems to be quoting)

Eliminating some student debt is a fish. Free university is the fishing rod. Do that instead.
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"we could’ve eliminated student loan debt for ~20 million Americans. "

Don't throw more money at schools. They will happily take the money and jack up tuition even more. There is no reason why tuition is going up at the pace it does.

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Allowing student debts to be included in bankruptcy takes care of most of the issue. Those that were unable to find decent, paying jobs will have a path to relieve the stress of high student loan payments, while those that found high paying jobs will continue paying on the loans from which they received a benefit.
Let the schools pay back the people they scammed.
Or, prices of houses would go up even more because we still aren't allowing supply to increase and people having more money doesn't change that.
Eliminating debt has a lot of unintended consequences. Price inflation would almost certainly be a problem, for example.

It's also not clear to me what happens to all of the derivatives based on student debt, though there may very well be an answer there that I just haven't understood yet.

You are forgetting the fact that this is a private investment, whereas the student loans problem should be solved by the government. No private institutions will have any interests in paying off student loans.
History says almost all society was corrputed and previous 50 to 80 years are slight exception. People with power prefer to give power to selected people selected by their personal preference.
Repaying student loans makes a lot of people a little richer. The current initiative makes a few people a lot richer. If you ask some people, the former is a very communist/socialist way of thinking (bad), while the latter is pure, unadulterated capitalism (good).
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i’m sorry but student debt payoffs are probably one of the lowest socially valuable uses of this money, rather than basic things like snap or housing vouchers. sorta shows how myopic HN is, student debt is a relatable concern so it gets prioritized
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I know!! Also we could have given an IPhone to 500 million of people for the amount!! It’s such a waste to think they’re investing it in the future instead
This is the problem with capitalists / the billionaires currently hoarding the money and the US' policy, it's all for short term gain. But the conservatives that look back to the 50's or 80's or whatever decade their rose-tinted glasses are tuned to should also realise that the good parts of that came from families not being neck-deep in debt.
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go to the uk. they have all the free abortions, genders, and education you could possibly want. apply for asylum since you're clearly afraid for your life.
I'm starting to think there's no difference between this website and reddit
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I am surprised at the negativity from HN. Their clear goal is to build superintelligence. Listen to any of the interviews with Altman, Demis Hassabis, or Dario Amodei (Anthropic) on the purpose of this. They discuss the roadmaps to unlimited energy, curing disease, farming innovations to feed billions, permanent solutions to climate change, and more.

Does no one on HN believe in this anymore? Isn't this tech startup community meant to be the tip of the spear? We'll find out by 2030 either way.

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>wars which break out because of scarcity issues

That doesn't seem to be much of a thing these days. If you look at Russia/Ukraine or China/Taiwan there's not much scarcity. It's more bullying dictator wants to control the neighbours issues.

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Very zero-sum outlook on things which is factually untrue much of the time. When you invest money in something productive that value doesn't get automatically destroyed. The size of the pie isn't fixed.
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It's an indirect attempt of tackling any first order problem. So is all software engineering.
Money doesn't fix stuff. You need good will people and good will people don't need that much money.
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Such mega investments are usually not for the sake of humankind. They are usually for the sake of a very selected group of humans.
We could do 20 Manhattan projects with it[1].

1) Build fully autonomous cars so there are zero deaths from car accidents. This is ~45K deaths/year (just US!) and millions of injuries. Annual economic cost of crashes is $340 billion. Worldwide the toll is 10 - 100x?

2) Put solar on top of all highways.

3) Give money to all farmers to put solar.

4) Build transmission.

And many more ...

The Manhattan Project employed nearly 130,000 people at its peak and cost nearly US$2 billion (equivalent to about $27 billion in 2023): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan_Project

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Five-hundred billion dollars is nothing when you consider there's a new government agency that it is said will shave two trillion from government inefficiency.
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"actually solve problems in the world."

By "solve problems" you mean "temporarily mitigate problems by throwing money at them", right? Or do you actually have specific examples of problems that can be permanently solved and aren't already being tackled?

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That’s like complaining about investments in automated looms at the start of the Industrial Revolution and claiming that the money would be better spent if handed out to the slum dwelling population.

We have the benefit of hindsight now and we understand that technological revolutions improve living standards for everyone and drag whole populations out of grinding labour and poverty.

And it would be foolish to allow China and Russia to out-invest the West in AI and make us mere clients (or worse, victims) of their superior technology.

Industrialists understand that the way to fix the world’s problems is to advance society, as opposed to resting on the laurels of past advancement, and dividing the diminishing spoils of those achievements.

> maybe even stop wars which break out because of scarcity issues.

Like which wars in this century?

The wars are how American tax payer money gets given to all these companies. Why would they try to end them?
I disagree with you. I think the impact of AI on society in the long term is going to be massive, and such investments are necessary. If we look at the past century, technology has had (in my opinion) and incredibly positive impact on society. You have to invest in the future.
Russia did not have a scarcity issue and still invaded its neighbor.
Won't an intelligent agent available to everyone be able to solve problems in the world? Isn't that why they (OpenAI) and others are doing what they do? To bring abundance?
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We flew to the moon several times for half that money xD
We already tried fixing problems with throwing tax money at them. It didn't work out. You can see the result of socialism in Russia, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela and where not. Wars do not start because of scarcities. Wars start because of disbalance of power. And it is very important for the Western world to be ahead in the AI, because otherwise China may cause a real war and then a lot of Western people would die. Do you not care about them?
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cant bribe an exponential curve for peace through linear surplus redistribution .
I'm sorry but unless this $500B was being invested in equipping soldiers and building navies, air capabilities, artillery, etc it could not stop even an urban gang turf war.
But then how could politicians and the wealthy steal all that money if you just gave it away or helped the poors?
It actually isn't alot, about $100 spread out over a few years for every person on earth isnt enough to do these things..
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The US can't stop the wars it wants others to fight for them even if it means population collapse like in Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
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