Has anyone in the history of government estimated that for anything?
I know you're asking rhetorically, but... yes.
The federal government has the CBO (https://www.cbo.gov/about/overview) and the OMB (https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/, warning: Trump pop-ups). California has the LAO (https://lao.ca.gov/About). Estimating fiscal impact of various policies is what those organizations do.
Yes, ROI estimates are very common in all kinds of government spending.
Right, they do the ROI calculation and then ignore it, and do whatever the favored lobbyists/campaign contributors said to do in any event. Government spending in a nutshell.
The Trump twist is being brazen enough that those who get these contracts can just be his family members or buddies, but otherwise, pretty standard.
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