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There is a third option where it is a minor inconvenience and you learn to adjust and be productive in other ways.
I agree that it's an opportunity to "do it the old way", as a way to preserve the skill. I actually would like to do that regularly, like half a day every week or something.

But I find it difficult to motivate it from the "productivity" angle. Like if I work for a day without an LLM today, it feels like I could go skiing instead, and the LLM will do what I would have done today in 10min tomorrow...

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And the LLMs of 5 years from now will do what current LLMs do in a day in 1 minute.
just want to remind HN that it was as little as a year when I mentioned I used LLMs to do all my coding, totally hands off and people here found it a curiosity. One year later and its madness to even contemplate coding manually.

Im not complaining Im just pointing out how quickly the overton window is shifting.

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"Overton window"? It's just developers being obtuse, short-sighted and slow.

It was obvious in 2023 and it is obvious now yet we still have people in denial even today. These people need AI to take over the world and threatening them with eternal suffering before they will change their minds even a bit.

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Yes, but my company does not pay me every 5 years. I don't know about you, but if I wait 5 years, I won't get a salary in the meantime.

If I wait until tomorrow, though, my company won't see the difference.

Sure, but depending on what your job is it can make the work feel even more meaningless than it was prior to LLMs.

All the work most people are doing it just going to be Ctrl+A deleted and replaced with someone else's LLM slop using Opus 8 in an afternoon.

All the shit people are building right now just feel ephemeral, like its going to float away on a breeze.

Well it's getting philosophical. Even before AI, I would argue that the vast majority of software was meaningless. Actually the most successful software on Earth is hurting society and the environment, in exchange for profit for a few humans.

I don't know any software engineer who can say "if I was not doing what I do, society would get a little worse".

I console myself that while the products we make are useless and probably even harmful the activity itself just represents the world Geist familiarizing itself with computation and its possibilities and thus growing richer in the process.

In the worst case.. sometimes you learn what's best by experiencing what's not.

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No, and that's also not necessary. We are reliant on our systems. The correct response is to harden our systems, not to foster some illusion of independence.

We can of course do that privately, for just the heck of it, but it's not the right response for anything at societal level. We simply need to work harder for more of these 9s

What's wrong with failover? I don't use anything from Anthropic except their API. So when Claude is having issues, I switch to GLM 5.3 or something, doesn't take more than a few seconds.

I realise people on the monthly plans can't do it as easily. But I would say that as far as possible, having a plan B is the foundation of resilience.

I think that's the 6 '9's problem. If you have something with 99% uptime, how much more are you willing to pay for 99.9% uptime, then 99.99% uptime. It's risk vs cost. Many places in the US do the same thing with things like say snow removal. Instead of having expensive systems ready to go for the 1-2 days of year of snow, you just shut things down for a day and slow down a little.

That doesn't work for all systems, and not for all businesses, but I would say the mass majority can 'suffer' 24 hours without email or an LLM without everything going up in flames.

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Not hard on monthly plans either. I have ant, OpenAI and cursor (mostly for grok and gemiii). Taxonomy of model steps, each has a pre-tuned failover from a different plan and I just need to flip a switch when a lab goes down. Switch isn’t really required but occasional enough that I want eyes on and the system is only for my personal usage so outage until switch is acceptable…

Another reason to have good Evals…

Failovers are nice, something that all reliable systems will provide, and, most notably, exactly the opposite of "just adjust".
You’re not wrong, but some companies swing real hard at the biggest players assuming they won’t all be down at the same time. My work has hard dependencies on 365 and Cloud Entra and only allows Claude company wide. Today is going to be a snow day since we couldn’t get into anything yesterday but we could at least get projects done using connections Claude had into various platforms that cached the data in 365.
One part of hardening our (company, economic) system is not collapsing when our (technological) system isn't working right.
>harden our systems, not to foster some illusion of independence.

Let me know when the tech industry workers stop doing this and gains some solidarity, and I'll join you in that sentiment.

Until then, I pretty much need to bolster myself on the idea that one day I will need to switch frameworks, IDE's, and even OS's themselves. I'm the ones guiding the tools, not vice versa.

>We simply need to work harder for more of these 9s

The only 100% thing I will guarantee is that these tools will align to the incentives of their leadership over time, not the customers using it. add 10 9's if you want, that just guarantees that humanity is the weakest link.

Reading the site guidelines, so I can be Claude-like and properly adjust my answer:

> Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive.

You are also a system. And, if you, as a system, don't run with Claude, you're not sufficiently hardened. People have made all sorts of helpful suggestions, like de-risking with multiple providers or just getting yourself a better Mac to run a local model.

The idea that: "No, no, we must have Claude, b/c it's the same as having a pen and paper!" is woefully naive. It's hard to attack the supply chain of pen and paper if you have a few extra reams and a few extra sticks. It's pretty easy for our geopolitical enemies to attack computers located far away from you, especially those systems are designed like fragile Rube Goldberg machines; furthermore, if we build an entire society (a system) to be productive only when we have LLMs, our issue isn't "insufficient-hardening". It's that the design is wrong.

There is always something that you can do that isn’t gated by the api. It isn’t critical path for literally everything. Go organize your expense reports or something.
What do you think I use to organize my expense reports? If there’s something substantial you can do entirely without tokens that’s probably an opportunity for additional automation. But please have failover across multiple labs!
What do you think got ya here?
>> If there’s something substantial you can do entirely without tokens that’s probably an opportunity for additional automation.

Well, I just finished a meeting where we diagrammed out how change authority is to be structured as we split one group into two, which teams will retain what authorities. Zero claude involvement. Ten people in a room. Whiteboard and markers with a "scribe" taking notes. I am now editing old SOPs to reflect the decisions made in the meeting ... not something we would trust to claude or any other AI.

Learned helplessness on full display here
>No, and that's also not necessary. We are reliant on our systems. The correct response is to harden our systems, not to foster some illusion of independence.

I'm not sure if this is your intent, but this paragraph reads like satire given current real world events.

The systems you mention in your second sentence are failing at the "right response" you mention in your third, which dictates that contrary to your first sentence alternative action is necessary.

You cannot harden systems you have no control over. Societal level assurances require law and goverment regulation and enforcement. It is juvenile to pretend otherwise. If we were talking about government services, then as a taxpayer you would have some avenue to enact change.

Your only option when dealing with private companies is to try and become anti-fragile as much as possible at a personal level or at the level of your own company.

Is there not a single SaaS, cloud company or similar that your org depends on? No AWS, no Cloudflare, all internal mail servers, no Docusign, no outside inference, nothing of that sort?
And a 4th option where you have more than one AI provider
Finally having time to vacuum clean the office
Is it not worth getting a Roomba-type device?
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I can't imagine a construction worker saying, power is out, gotta find a way to be productive, I guess instead of the paint sprayer, nail gun and circular saw, we'll just find other ways to be productive with our hands. The same might apply to law, medicine, etc. I think we're almost there with software.
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I get what you're saying and I would wholeheartedly agree 5-7 years ago but after hearing Our Lord and Savior Claude Code as the solution to all our technical problems with ever increasing fervor and intensity for the last two years, I'm gonna take the cynical route, maybe fence on office chairs, not because my code is compiling, nor my prompt is running, but Claude is down management, what do you want me to do now, actually think?

From what I hear, the project managers are having a hard time sending emails anyway. We'll call it quits, winkwink.

There's also the option where it doesn't affect you at all, because you do not rely on LLMs—or even just do not rely specifically on Claude—at all, and can easily do your job without ever noticing that it's down.
tell that to people working in medical fields.
Haha. Like people forgot how to develop before LLMs smh