Seriously, who will change provider because of this? Our institution is so brainwashed and hidebound to Microsoft it would take a lot more than this. It seems like an abusive relationship: the bad times just increase fear generally, so make change less likely.
It's the same with AWS, Cloudflare. There is also this weird effect, often commented on here, where if half the Internet is down, everyone understands when you are down. If I use some random new start up for my infrastructure or services, and it goes down, customers and executives are furious. So it seems we are stuck here.
Microsoft is worse. At least you can entertain the idea of switching between AWS and GCS but moving off outlook or Entra? Not a chance
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It might not force a change away, but it definitely reduces the chance of people switching to them.
I think what it will mostly do is hardening existing customers anti-cloud stance.
There already was big reluctance by many enterprises to switch to Exchange Online and New Outlook due to lack of feature parity and control, to the degree that Exchange Server SE became a product (with support until at least 2035) and Classic Outlook is still the prescribed Outlook variant in many organizations (with support until at least 2029). I also know of some customers, which migrated back from Exchange Online to on-premise Exchange Server because they were so unsatisfied with it.
This will only make it harder for Microsoft to pull all customers to their cloud offerings. I think in general that's a significant blow to SaaS-ification of the field.
Doubtful.
I suspect people will take it in their stride. What would happen after a month long outage is another question.