They'll lock down hardware and control who gets to use AI GPUs.

Nvidia is just about the only company that's both a monopoly and captured most of the value.

They will make the penalty so severe that anyone who doesn't cover their trail will get the book thrown at them

It's not about the weights, it's about inference. Banning American inference providers from serving "non-vetted" models would surely bring a lot of customers back to OpenAI and Anthropic. Just when they go public.