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small_model | on: Anthropic IPO
I would wait for 2-3 quarters before investing, it will drop and there will likely be lock-ins to contend with. if growth slows then price could tumble fast.
sensanaty | parent | next
The stock market is barely distinguishable from a casino at this point (and arguably never has been far from gambling), I have 0 confidence that the horrible business that Anthropic is will be reflected accurately in any way
a_bonobo | root | parent | next
I feel like the saying "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" has applied my entire life; I have yet to see the stock market behave rationally in my lifetime.
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jimbokun | root | parent | next
Stock market is a casino with positive expected value.
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small_model | root | parent
Horrible business, hmmm, so it's revenue has grown 10x every year since inception, what is a good business to you if that is deemed 'Horrible'.
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xnx | parent
So I should short it?
jstanley | root | parent | next
To profit from shorting it you need to not just be right that it is going to go down, but be able to tolerate the volatility in the interim.
rob74 | root | parent | next
"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". That, or the markets may turn out to be right after all...
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alembic_fumes | root | parent
So I should straddle it?

edit: To clarify, this is a light-hearted continuation about how essentially any claim about the stock market is enactable in some form. And so even the much of generally well-intentioned advise is in fact a claim that the person should be putting their money on, if they truly believe it. I think only claims like "Nobody knows what's going to happen, it's effectively gambling => stay out of the market" come close to being fully self-consistent, but e.g. advising to not buy because the price comes down, or to not short because of volatility both fail this. Markets are funny.

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dozerly | root | parent | next
If you have to ask, then you shouldn’t short it.
xnx | root | parent
Right. I was trying to emphasize that no one knows what the stock price will do.
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DharmaPolice | root | parent | next
If you view that as an investment then no. If you view it as a minor flutter then maybe. You might believe that Team X will win the next game (maybe at a 60% chance) but unless you're a degenerate gambler you wouldn't bet heavily on that outcome.
epolanski | root | parent | next
As the late Charlie Munger said about Tesla: I wouldn't own it, I wouldn't short it.
dist-epoch | root | parent | next
Shorting the leading AI company during the AI revolution?

Reminds me when HN was saying NVIDIA is a good short 3 years ago, supposedly it was "in a bubble", because it's stock prices was as if it had 10x the revenue it had in back then. Plot twist: today NVIDIA revenue is 10x the revenue from 2023, so it turns out the stock was priced exactly right back then, because the stock market is forward looking.

small_model | root | parent
I wouldn't short it, it's likely to ruin you similar to what happened to the Tesla shorts. I would hold off to see if their earnings look good then go all in with 100-1 leverage. /s