Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit
"[lithium ion battery prices] declined by more than 99%. In 1991, lithium-ion batteries cost around $9,200 per kilowatt-hour — 33 years later, they cost just $78."

https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline

The price of battery storage is dropping exponentially, just as the price of solar power has. Eventually, the price becomes pretty trivial.

The scale we're talking here is not just a shack with a couple of batteries. Even with low prices of today, we're talking several millions of investment for 10 MWh.

> The price of battery storage is dropping exponentially

We're at the flat end of things. Even if this trend continues, there won't be another 99% reduction coming.

> Eventually, the price becomes pretty trivial.

Only if you can scale manufacturing and materials the same way. Hopefully not with Lithium, because that's just not abundant enough.

> The scale we're talking here is not just a shack with a couple of batteries. Even with low prices of today, we're talking several millions of investment for 10 MWh.

1.78 million USD at current exchange rate. Before sales tax, but if you're buying at this scale, you claim that tax back anyway:

https://www.ladeengel.de/Batteriespeicher/Grossspeicher-ab-5...

> Only if you can scale manufacturing and materials the same way. Hopefully not with Lithium, because that's just not abundant enough.

1. Sodium is already cost-competitive with lithium, for batteries.

2. There's loads of lithium all over the place, the hard part of using it is that it's spread out everywhere rather than particularly concentrated. Like, we're talking 150 million tons of "reserves", 250 billion tons dissolved in the seawater, and plausibly 5 quadrillion tons in the bulk of the planet's rock.

> can claim that tax back anyway

You could make hamster wheels an attractive energy source with enough tax refunds. That's not an especially compelling argument when arguing about the global ramifications of a new technology. Tax breaks don't magically make alternative fuel sources better on any given axis. They shift incentives, but that power isn't infinite.

In the EU, all sales taxes are refunded to businesses, it's available for literally everywhere in the supply chain.

It's called "Value Added Tax" in English (UK has same rules despite Brexit), because it works out as the tax on the value you add: Business 1 digs €1 of stuff out of ground, charges their customer e.g. 15% VAT; business 2 buys it for €1.15, claims that €0.15 back always, processes the stuff into €2 of new stuff, charges their customer (in this case) €0.30; business 3 buys it for €2.30, claims that €0.30 back always; etc. all the way to the end customer or export market.

If you're spending millions on power management equipment, you're absolutely a business, and absolutely will get to claim this tax back, and you effectively owe tax only on the net benefit it brings. Electricity is also subject to VAT, though the rates are allowed to vary, and the e.g. UK electricity VAT rate is 5% while the general rate is 20%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value-added_tax#Comparison_wit...

Look at the graph in the article. The trend is clearly log-linear at the tail end in 2024, which is to say, still dropping exponentially. People said the same thing about solar for years, of course. Exponential decreases in cost are apparently hard for people to reason about. As others say in adjacent comments, there's lots of lithium around, and lots of promising work on salt based chemistries for mass storage. Plenty of room for progress.
Chinese companies are building salt batteries now.