Nobody is getting fired for thinking they need to buy scarce H100s in case they aren't able to get them in the future. Nobody is even getting fired for keeping their companies out of Jensen Jail — the fear that if they don't buy the whole server stack from Nvidia they might not get future GPU allocations.
There really are analysts who think Nvidia is channel-stuffing.
If the market deflates there will be a glut of very cheap compute, both in terms of data centres (though many of them will be able to offer managed model training services instead, I suspect) and in terms of unused hardware being made available for sale.
Nvidia won't lose out; everyone else is going to.
Supply and demand bring what it is means that (alleged) cheap compute won’t stay cheap or go unused for very long.
The problem is that "scarcity of GPUs and RAM" is being used as a proxy for "demand for AI".
It's a broken proxy; the scarcity of H100s is artificial.
Are the contracts on the income statements of the sellers? If Anthropic promised to buy $200B of GPUs from NVIDIA, is it recorded on NVIDIA's income statement (other than a footnote "we have $200B orders lined up")?
'Cause if it is, that'd be $200B GDP increase _literally_ conjured out of thin air.
If they haven't been manufactured, things are potentially quite sketchy.