Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit
simianwords | on: I'm not convinced the AI bubble exists
I completely disagree with this. What you are saying is that performance, all they need a simple trick and they get Claude performance for free. In that case, why do we see open weight models still lagging?

Assuming you meant this for personality, I’d still disagree but not that extensively. I think personality is nuanced and complex - it can’t be simply lifted and shifted. It’s grown using a meticulous process.

InsidiousWombat | parent
> I completely disagree with this. What you are saying is that performance, all they need a simple trick and they get Claude performance for free. In that case, why do we see open weight models still lagging?

Yes, they are lagging.

But "performance of Claude's from 6 months behind" is fine for a lot of tasks. And the performance of today's Claude will be still useful for many (and more and more) tasks in 6 months.

The frontier labs are making models for smaller and smaller share of the pie, as the capabilities of open models grow. That isn't sustainable

bluebands | root | parent
> But "performance of Claude's from 6 months behind" is fine for a lot of tasks. And the performance of today's Claude will be still useful for many (and more and more) tasks in 6 months.

Okay, then why would one buy 6-months-ago performance for 2-3x more from an open weights lab as opposed to a closed lab?

OpenAI and Anthropic are competing heavily with GPT-6 Luna and Claude Haiku 5.5!