Yes. And valuation. I think the leading frontier labs will be fine in the long-run and NVidia will be fine. Some of their investors who bought at too high of a valuation, expecting to flip it in too short a time frame will lose a chunk of their money when they have to sell for less.
The hyper-scalers in the middle are the most vulnerable. They borrowed billions at increasingly high rates to lock up GPU and power capacity. They are 'ground zero' of a lot of the 'circular money' deals. Big banks who financed hyper-scalers initially, expecting they could package that debt up and sell it on to diversify, are already struggling to find buyers for the debt, causing its value to drop, which then forces the banks to cover with more collateral, and that's how the snowball starts down the mountain.
NVIDIA will take a huge hit and we will probably end up with anti circular financing laws.
Frontier labs are losing money and are most likely to go bankrupt and be absorded by bigger companies.
Hyperscalers will take a huge beating but they are ultimately profitable and they already control the frontier labs. So after a hard crash they will be fine. A lot of their debt is actually offloaded onto pension funds, insurance companies, etc. Those risk bankruptcy.
And do these not all have established business models that are ridiculously profitable, and huge cash reserves?
How the heck are THEY vulnerable, and the "bare" frontier labs like Anthropic and OpenAI with no preexisting business models or profits, but equally ridiculous borrowing are supposedly not?
Google, Meta, Amazon, MS have huge cash-producing businesses they can just fall back on. Of course the stocks will get hammered in the short term, but they are still sitting on cash volcanos.
Pure AI plays are what are most at risk. In the bad case, all the CoreWeave type companies have their assets acquired on the cheap by the existing big players. In the armageddon case, companies like Anthropic and OpenAI also end up in the discount bin.
Hyperscalers are FAANG.