Competing with chinese open-weight model which can run openly or on independent providers. Once the temporary hardware shock is over and becomes more easily available, there will be tons of independent inference providers hosting open-weight models. And I suspect we will see dozens of custom, niche distilations from open-weight models being offered by smaller groups.

Anthropic has no value proposition - just being 3-6months ahead in frontier models vs. open-weight doesn't justify trilion dollar valuation.

The first. There have been massive waves of price cuts in Q3. OpenAI and Anthropic keep slashing prices to take market share from each other, it seems.