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simianwords | on: I'm not convinced the AI bubble exists
Even if Anthropic and OpenAI go to zero, the bubble popping still won't hurt many people like it did in other recessions.

Actually there are two different things going on here

1. model layer companies: OpenAI, Anthropic

2. hyperscalers, data centres, hardware layer

When people say the bubble will pop, they usually mean the second one.

> I also think the narrative that these companies are profitable on compute is erroneous.

I don't think you read the Anthropic filing. It is substantially profitable if you exclude the one type of debt which was actually equity. It so happened that Amazon lent some money to Anthropic but it was tied to the valuation of Anthropic, which became a "problem" because Anthropic's valuation grew 10x. You wouldn't call this a loss in any other circumstance.

otherme123 | parent | next
> I don't think you read the Anthropic filing. It is substantially profitable if you exclude the one type of debt which was actually equity.

Anthropic filling shows negative EBITDA, how is that profitable? Revenue < (computing + personal + selling expenses). That is not a business, that is a money burning furnace.

That before even taking into account the huge amount of money they promised to datacenters (i.e. "build that for us, and we would rent it for 5 years", non cancellable).

| root | parent | next
{"deleted":true,"id":50426192,"parent":50422280,"time":1794234777,"type":"comment"}
simianwords | root | parent
Sorry I meant in Q2 it is profitable excluding loan converted deductibles. There’s close to no chance that q3 and h2 is not profitable as well, unless you disagree and want to make that bet?
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etempleton | parent
Did you read the amended filings with Q3? Because they are not profitable in Q3 either. And their debt due is about to increase substantially. This is all before they inevitably have to issue billions of dollars in bonds with insane yields. 450 billion in commits due over the next 5 years or so.