> Maybe think of it as a bimodal thing.
And how does that justify the valuation that they are planning to IPO at?
It's just a total gamble, is that the claim?
> I can easily imagine a future in which Anthropic builds a sustainable profit model, grows into new sectors, and is credibly worth 7T in ten years.
I can easily imagine a future in which Anthropic fails to find a market fit that results in the kinds of profit that will cover their current spending commitments, and where the company is another casualty of progress.
If it were a sure bet, then it would be worth 10 trillion today.
Of course it is a Gamble. Anyone who knows anything understands there's risk
“A risk” is not the same as a gamble. Of course there is risk. But companies don’t have trillion dollar valuations when there isn’t a clear path to profitability.
Every one of the few companies with that kind of valuation generates tens or hundreds of billions per year in free cash flow.
I dont see the difference. Seems like risk vs gamble depends entirely on where you sit. Why do you think they are different?
Are you saying that these AI companies dont have trillion dollar valuations? Looking at reality, you appear to be wrong on the facts.
This entire discussion is about whether the current valuations represent a bubble, and your retort seems to be that because they have these valuations they must be correct. That’s quite the circular reasoning.