Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit
NBJack | on: I'm not convinced the AI bubble exists
I like the sentiment, but the author doesn't appear to be accounting for some harsh truths:

- Anthropic is already expected to have junk bond status; this is going to make dealing with their existing debt rough while costs likely continue to rise

- Datacenters are 'cheap' once they come online, but that assumes they will. Power infrastructure hasn't been able to keep up, and several pending datacenters (I've seen estimates in the 50% range) meant for AI growth have been significantly delayed because of it.

- The US has a lot of debt coming up in 2028. The AI investments have been far more lucrative than the traditional 30-year bond. The AI bubble doesn't have to pop at all for the global market to plunge.

wmf | parent | next
Datacenters being delayed/canceled is actually good because it reduces overinvestment.
loading story #50424655
s1artibartfast | parent | next
> Anthropic is already expected to have junk bond status; this is going to make dealing with their existing debt rough while costs likely continue to rise

Exactly the opposite. This is good for a tech company IPO which opens up all kinds of bond options. Most dont even have a bond rating! BB+ is a get.

Refreeze5224 | parent
> - Anthropic is already expected to have junk bond status; this is going to make dealing with their existing debt rough while costs likely continue to rise

If he is not accounting for this, then he is not saying anything of value whatsoever. So many people are still operating on vibes instead of these companies' actual financial positions, and "because Claude does cool stuff for me!".