I am pretty sure the biggest thing in question is if OpenAI and Anthropic are as valuable as they say they are vs any other AI labs. I guess we will see, but I still feel it doesn’t take many ex-employees from them to build something that can wrestle them, and also it’s weird seeing other players that also have comparable AI models (Alphabet, Meta, whatever company owns Grok these days, …) do not get as much in value. There is also the “Can local models disrupt this?” question (and the Chinese labs), and there is also the question of hardware availability (will some player change this?).
I feel the projected value of both OpenAI and Anthropic requires that nothing changes in a space of technology where things seems to change a lot and reasonably suddenly.
Does Open AI or Anthropic fall behind? I think if either falls behind people are going to panic and the eventual stock price will tank. Both companies have a ton of commits so much in fact that one of them failing might take one or two other companies with them. That is what I think the big risk is.