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amluto | on: I'm not convinced the AI bubble exists
The usability and potential profits of housing were there in 2007 and 2008, too.
xboxnolifes | parent | next
In 2007, It was regular people who lost their homes and their leveraged investment properties. Regular people are not leveraged into AI startups today. If the AI bubble pops, regular feel people will feel the direct financial consequences significantly less than the '07 housing crisis.
agent_turtle | root | parent | next
> Regular people are not leveraged into AI startups today

this isn't accurate. as an example, anyone with a 401k will be affected by the stock market and the stock market is mostly tech, and tech has bet the house on ai

pj_mukh | root | parent | next
"Your 401k should never go down at all" is not a realistic expectation.

Hopefully, people who need to pull from their 401k's soon have wound down to less risky positions. 401k exposure is just not the same thing as your house valuation tanking.

agent_turtle | root | parent
i used 401ks here as one example. but if your company has to downsize due to exposure, that means you're out of a job.
gizajob | root | parent
Temporarily. The market goes up and down for all kinds of reasons. Long term though it’s never failed to go up and to the right.
loading story #50423318
grey-area | root | parent | next
Unfortunately, they are, the market (even the global market) is heavily concentrated in just a few US listed companies, and other indexes closely track US indexes. A crisis in AI would impact everyone.

For proof, look at the fall in VWRL last week correlated with concerns over AI which hit nasdaq.

amluto | root | parent
> In 2007, It was regular people who lost their homes and their leveraged investment properties.

And the debt on which these owners defaulted had been converted into CDOs and mortgage-backed securities, it was financial institutions and investors who lost enormous amounts of money on these.

Today there are GPU-backed securities and compute futures that are helping back all the debt that is financing the datacenter boom. Maybe it’s a bubble, maybe it’s not a bubble, but either way I think its parallel to 2007.

pj_mukh | parent
And the valuations made no sense in 10 yea....oh.