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> Also, Anthropic is showing that to operate at Anthropic level, you need $300,000 compute spend per employee

That's API-list prices. They have an 80% margin over COGS.

Cost per equivalent output is dropping 10x every 18 months -> so in 3-ish years, if the trend continues, that will be $3k per employee.

Not bad. A lot of companies are already spending about that much or more on IT per employee.

Especially since that $3k bakes in an 80% margin. It's about $600 per year if you DIY at scale - which is about $50 per month - but at the $3k price, hardly anyone is going to.

In the West old-age dependency ratio (retirees per working-age adult) is climbing roughly 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points per year.

We've got to get 0.7% more productive for employees to keep the same quality of life (unless retirees get screwed, and since they vote and make up a huge portion of the voting block, I wouldn't count on that happening).

Further, more and more of the population has to transition into into elder care.

Unless we hit 3%+ GDP growth, us workers are probably going to see declines in quality of life (and we're probably not going to get those levels of growth)...