I’m not as smart as Scott but for me it’s more like 10% -> 20%. Do we have a prediction market for this?
It seems highly irrational to bet that your evaluation is more likely than Aaronson's.
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Predictions markets are terrible mechanisms for this, because they require imposing an arbitrary time limit at which point the prediction will pay out. IOW, even if you religiously believed P=NP, but you think it would take at least two years to prove it, you would vote against the prediction if the deadline were one year.
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