My guess is that in formally verifiable domains you can use RL-esque processes to get lots of good high-quality training data with reward signals (does it verify?), but the same does not apply to "scruffier" work. I would also imagine that the data volume of high-quality scientific work in "scruffy" domains is too low for the large language models to have a good manifold for "high-quality biology research". Would love to be proven wrong if anyone knows of anyone doing great scientific work with large language models in non-verifiable domains though.
Many of the harnesses used to search for solutions rely on quick/cheap correctness checks to discard incorrect hypotheses. With something like biology, you might need to run a wet lab experiment to reject an idea. This can add days per iteration, slowing progress down by a factor of 100 or more.
The sad reality is that many computational approximations for biological phenomenon are relatively weak and lack the predictive power we need.
AI has dominion over the digital world, when it can verify things in Lean it's able to crush problems like they're a game of Go.
But when the real world and digital world don't quite connect AI is bottlenecked.
Obviously it's easy to understand why having strong abilities in maths and coding can help with solving problems in physics. But it's also true of knowledge and mental models more broadly.
For example, say somehow you managed to train a frontier model without any data about elephants. If you did this it would be relatively easy to later train elephants into the weights. You'd basically just need to train it about elephants at a very superficial level. After all, it it already knows what a mammal is. It knows what legs are. It knows what eyes are. It understands how it's digestive system works. All the things that makes the biology of elephants difficult doesn't need to be learnt from scratch.
I assure you people on HN will be surprised at how quickly frontier models will become competent in domains that are harder to RL. They won't need anywhere near as much data as people currently believe.