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Gareth321 | on: Anthropic S-1
To be fair, if you told Amazon investors in 1997 that their investment would go up 3,300x and Amazon would be worth $2.7 trillion in 2026, they’d have called you insane too. There isn’t a mathematical reason Anthropic can’t be worth that in 2056. I don’t think it will be, but not because of the compounding returns.

Einstein once said “compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world.” It’s very hard for humans to comprehend compounding returns.

hluska | parent | next
Let me put it this way.

For Anthropic to show similar returns over 29 years, it would be valued at many times the current total market cap of the S&P 500. At Amazon’s current value after 29 years of growth, its market capitalization is about 1/3 the total market cap of the S&P 500 at the of 1997.

It’s quite hard to justify that in terms of future cash flows. At even a quadrillion dollar valuation and a 20x revenue multiplier, they’d need $50 trillion in revenue… or roughly 1.5 quarters of current US GDP.

So while mathematically possible, it’s quite improbable.

TacticalCoder | parent
> There isn’t a mathematical reason Anthropic can’t be worth that in 2056.

"There isn't a mathematical reason Anthropic can't be worth 165x the actual US GDP by 2056".