There are moonshot projects related to superconductors, materials, and biology that these companies can claim progress on to keep valuations stratospheric.
The only one that stuck and was revenue generating has been code and Chinese models are pretty much on par.
I’m not sure the same conditions exist in other fields that deal with real world phenomena. Experiments to test hypotheses about biology or physics can take years and cost millions of dollars to run. They rarely scale down to the millipennies and milliseconds scale that makes letting a swarm of agents throw a bunch of shit at the wall and see what sticks a feasible option for finding mathematical proofs.
Getting IPO level monies should enable the amount of capital needed to sustain such efforts, and if I were a betting man, that is going to be Anthropic's actual endgame given their nascent efforts in automating bio research.
Don't see why it should! Unless there's a harness like in math for other fields.
What has evolved is that mathematicians are pearl clutching because they never thought it would happen to them and wondering if they can still pour all their ideas / thoughts / research into these tools after all is said and done.
That last point is the one that kills OAI / Ant going forward. Can they be trusted? Anecdotally no.
You're glossing over
> every single niche they've tried to launch and failed to get any traction on.
This isn't true. I personally know a company that has trained over 300 companies this year to use Claude Cowork mostly for "business operations" type tasks.
People love offloading boring, repetitive tasks to it. And the spend is spending - most start on a free plan and after 3 months have multiple people on the Teams plans.
> Chinese models are pretty much on par.
There isn't even an open source harness that is close to Cowork. ChatGPT work is closest, but everything else if coding focused and a mess for people who aren't coders.
I’ll start - Claude for finance.