People have been saying the openweight models would collapse anthropic's revenue since the deepseek moment in January of 2025. They've stayed ahead in model intelligence and increased revenue by a lot since then.
Not saying it couldn't happen in the future, but we've got to be circumspect about that narrative after almost 2 years of it, no?
January 2025 isn’t even two years ago yet. When you’re talking about giant companies going public you want to be looking at significantly longer timescales than that.
How much of that revenue is usage from hosting partners (AMZN, M$, etc) who have a vested interest in using Anthropic instead of open weights though?
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Claude max sub is like 4x cheaper than deepseek equivalent, isn't it? At least 2x cheaper.
The thing holding open models back is the insane cost of gpus. If/when that cost goes down… look out closed models!
In January 2025 most of us didn’t even consider the frontier models good enough for regular usage.
Why would you be circumspect if the gap kept getting closer?
Doesn't that indicate its becoming _more_ true?
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