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> I wonder what caused that prediction to fail.

A lot of media outlets have been fingering the outage of some data centers due to kinetic action for a worldwide decline in divisive rhetoric, potentially impacting democratic processes.

This has been widely discredited.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9y7l0pm8jkko

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Facebook/Meta openly supporting Bolsanaro and sabotaging Lula probably mattered a lot more. Here's them acknowledging funny business:

https://mronline.org/2026/10/16/meta-acknowledges-the-reduce...

If that were true it would have diminished Lula "support" as Lula is strongly preferred by Russia due to his anti-US and anti-NATO stance.
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Not everything you'd want to be true, is. Checking makes the difference, you just need to do it.