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smuhakg | on: Lula wins election after final votes tallied
If he has an 80% chance to win that means Polymarket will be "wrong" 20% of the time. And 80% seems fair given he was leading in the polls by a razor thin but consistent margin.
jeffbee | parent
Polymarket isn't binary so you are understating how wrong they were. Polymaket gives outcomes as percentage odds and less than 12 hours ago they had Bolsonaro by 5-to-1.
cowlevel | root | parent
They resolve as binary. Until they resolve it's a percentage chance of the eventual resolution.