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brazukadev | on: Lula wins election after final votes tallied
Really unexpected.

Polymarket was like 80% Bolsonaro Jr to 20% Lula 7pm, 7:15 it changed to 60% Lula. There were multiple reports in the news websites about it favoring Bolsonaro which itself probably made some people vote for him.

I'm quite happy with the result tho. Let's see how the far right opposition will take this loss. I'm already expecting the worse.

mulderc | parent | next
Maybe these prediction markets are less useful than has been claimed.
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medellin | root | parent | next
They are good at some markets but they don’t understand latam and especially Brazilian politics in the least so whatever makes it into the US news drives the market although it is normally wrong
verdverm | root | parent
and more manipulated for intended public influence than realized

this kind of gambling ought be made illegal along with the explicit in-pocket gambling

want to gamble, go to a physical place,

constant, easy access apps are already showing harm

bryanlarsen | parent | next
A 20% chance of Lula winning is still a real chance of winning. A standard rule of thumb would require 2 standard deviations aka 5% aka p<0.05 for relative certainty.
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estebank | parent | next
If you think this result with those odds is unexpected, you must have never played X-Com :)
platevoltage | parent | next
We saw how they took it last time.
medellin | parent | next
Not really. If you follow anyone who has been covering latam for a long time they had odds of this election at a coinflip.
matheusmoreira | parent
If the new right wing senate manages to at least impeach some supreme court judges, I'll still call it a major win.

Surprising to see Bolsonaro lose at this point, but the real upset of this election was caused by the senate. The whole point of electing the right wing was to impeach the judges. So long as that happens, I will be satisfied.

The next four years were going to seriously suck for Flávio. Now the economic bomb is going to explode in Lula's hands. I was tempted to vote for Lula myself just to make that happen. It's the supreme court issue that stopped me.

Lula's barely fit for his position as president too. He might resign and let the vice-president deal with it. Also an acceptable outcome.

cowlevel | root | parent
What do you get out of posting on HN that you want to destroy your country?
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