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Is this the new cyber normal?

https://drew.silcock.dev/blog/is-this-the-new-cyber-normal/
There are two aspects: first that there is currently a much higher pace of critical vulnerabilities and exploits being discovered, and second that there is a much shorter window between discovery and large-scale exploitation.

People are saying the pace will settle down once LLMs find and fix all the bugs. Okay, sure, if you want to believe that sort of thing, but that still leaves the much shorter time window, and that's not going to go away anytime soon.

If you're on the side of the industry where your job or hobby involves breaking things, this is all very exciting. But if you're on the side of the industry where your job is to prevent things from being broken, then it really sucks.

I lost a full day yesterday because some big players discovered a thing, told other big players about it, "oopsed" enough public information to let everyone else know about it, and then left everyone else to figure out what to do with almost no information to act upon.

This cycle has happened several times this year now. If you're on the short list of big hosting providers, you get advance notice of what's coming and early fixes; if you're not, sucks to be you, hope you didn't have any plans today.

For people like me, this is just yet one more way LLMs are making my life materially worse.

The coordinated disclosure thing will have to stop soon. Ideally, if you found a vuln from the defensive side, you'd tell all the "good guys" about it and none of the bad guys. The world doesn't work that way, so instead, the compromise was to tell a small number of important big actors who were unlikely to leak it, so the most good could be done before everyone found out.

Now the simple knowledge that there might be an exploitable memory issue in some given piece of software is enough for bad actors to point LLMs at it and find the issue in hours. That will only keep getting worse.

At some point, it's going to become a speed game. If you find a vuln, you might as well disclose to everyone immediately. Anyone who runs internet-exposed software will need an agent watching for disclosures around the clock and triaging them automatically (either by upgrading, improving filtering with some protective shell, or taking the whole service offline until humans can help) to keep up with the offensive agents watching around the clock and attacking automatically.

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> People are saying the pace will settle down once LLMs find and fix all the bugs

Yeah I don't buy it either. Look at github right now, it is a total slopfest with people vibing projects they don't know the first thing about. Plenty of LLM use will be delivering code full of new exploits. It will be interesting to see the frequency of these exploits being found correlated to LLM friendly/unfriendly contribution policies once the dust has settled to tell for certain though.

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> For people like me, this is just yet one more way LLMs are making my life materially worse.

I wonder if we start to hit a point where the pace that exploits are found and deployed increases faster than they get repaired, because there is a natural higher risk appetite for the bad actors, whereas the good actors still require careful thought and prudence. As a result of this, would the internet/digital economy largely seize up and crash? That would be bad, especially for a lot of people on this site. Maybe this leads to a regression in convenience, but requires more in-person interaction in order to function in society. You can already see this pattern today emerging in higher education. Maybe, in a deeper way, this improves humanity?

> People are saying the pace will settle down once LLMs find and fix all the bugs.

Only for projects that are in a maintenance state. New features will produce new bugs, unless everyone pays for the tokens to scan every release with the top-of-the-line agents or otherwise spends more time than many do ATM to ensure that changes and new code don't introduce significant exploit paths. Things will slow down once the low-hanging fruit from the past is mostly detected and pulled, but the level of vigilance will always have to be at least a little higher than it has been until recently.

Time between updates releasing and people installing them has been an increasing problem for some time, we are just going to have to be a lot more disciplined about that. This will be a problem for places that have strict availability requirements as they might have to compromise on the testing time they spend on new patches before updating their installations, and we might have to move to having more flexible maintenance windows (the old “an hour or two once a month after Patch Tuesday” hasn't cut it for some time and certainly won't going forward) to allow faster updates.

The bigger problem, compared to the patch-availability-to-general-use time which can be reduced somewhat via automation (though that might accelerate bad-patch based attacks…), is greater constraints for the time between bug discovery and patch release: as soon as there is a rumour of an issue many will start scanning for it (as that is easier now) so the time to wide exploitation is going to be much shorter. This might lead to buggy patches that add new issues of their own.

Perhaps we'll see a lot more projects having explicit LTS releases that only get security updates or signifiant bug fixes, which will reduce the attack surface area (and fault surface area) most users, letting those with less stability concerns deal with the bleeding edge.

> For people like me, this is just yet one more way LLMs are making my life materially worse.

I'm with you there…

As an industry, we also know two more aspects

1. many have underinvested in security for a long time

2. many are checking out of the development process

I generally think we can improve software with Ai tools, but I'm skeptical the current incentives will lead to this.

> But if you're on the side of the industry where your job is to prevent things from being broken, then it really sucks.

It's called job security :)

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I have to wonder, what is the real substantive number difference in exploits. Its in the hype train's interest to pump the CVEs in both quantity and severity so I do wonder how much of that is happening.

The time to exploit is also somewhat hypothetical. We're assuming infinite attacker resources which hasn't really been the assumption.

We see a lot more news and fear but are we seeing more actual "large scale exploitation"?

I'd love to see some numbers in that regard.

The web as we know it was never securable. LLMs made it obvious. We made a wrong turn somewhere back around JavaScript. Eventually we'll get fed up with the quick fixes and design something better. I don't blame the LLMs for this. I blame whoever made that wrong turn back in the 90's (and us, for not turning around sooner).
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> For people like me, this is just yet one more way LLMs are making my life materially worse.

AI skynet is killing humans. We know that already though.

You were the one hosting an exploitable application.
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> first that there is currently a much higher pace of critical vulnerabilities and exploits being discovered

The slowest that will ever be.

> second that there is a much shorter window between discovery and large-scale exploitation.

The longest that will ever be.

Aren’t exponentials beautiful?

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Everything I've read indicates that yes, this is the new normal.

When Mythos was first announced, pretty much every security expert I talk to freaked directly out. A significant portion of my job now revolves around mitigating the impact of AI-generated exploits.

The rate at which we're churning out AI-generated code is going to make this worse, too, because AI-generated code is kind of notoriously terrible at security.

_Is_ AI generated code notoriously terrible at security?

My experience with AI-code is that it's extremely defensive and good at minimizing 'obvious' mistakes.

Are we comparing to old models generating code? Or mythos-class models?

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You just need to use AI to test your AI code.

(What a wonderful new world we live in)

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Can you explain the asymmetry you are claiming that exists where some models would be excellent at finding faults in code/systems and exploiting them often through coding the required tools to exploit them... but at the same time they would be bad at avoiding this kind of faults when coding the system itself?

Feels like you should be able to prompt the kind of exploits you want to prevent and the model should be able to make the system secured against them, no?

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> The rate at which we're churning out AI-generated code is going to make this worse, too, because AI-generated code is kind of notoriously terrible at security.

I think this was true in the past but AI is helping us finding exploits which have been in our code for many years. All out there by humans. We’re seeing fewer customer reported issues, and despite the pen tests getting far more rigorous, we’re passing all of them. Obviously this is one data point, but I’m hearing similar things from my friends in security and ops.

Yea most the people I know working in cyber security weren't worried about mythos in a serious way. All the people selling cyber products spread fear over it because profit.Everyone knows there are exploits laying in wait. Always has been always will be.

Most the cyber security people I know were upset once llms came out that could do basic os int and author their own emails, and mimic speech/video. That's how the majority of real losses occur. No one even talks about it. It's mind numbing hearing about the zebras and unicorns when there are 10 billion ants entering houses a year. Exotic stuff sells...

Now lots of sane people are genuinely and correctly worried that turning all engineers into 24/7 sloppers is and will continue to make the world far more exploitable. That's the real risk as far as I can tell

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Agreed. Shouldn't continuous pen testing be a thing by now?
> because AI-generated code is kind of notoriously terrible at security.

and vaccines notoriously cause autism. But you might investigate why that belief is so widespread and you might not believe it that much anymore.

Can you point at something specifically that indicates this statement is true?

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> The rate at which we're churning out AI-generated code is going to make this worse, too, because AI-generated code is kind of notoriously terrible at security.

This seems incongruent with what we're witnessing. Right now we're witnessing vulnerabilities that are 6 years old be exposed. That code wasn't generated by AI slop.

Security has always been about attacker/defender symmetry. So if the attacker has an LLM so does the defender. Reality is, the tax is getting higher as security tooling extracts more perceived value.

Let’s not forget the AI industry developed the technology and infrastructure for that security nightmare to exists. And no, none of that was inevitable. At every single step the AI leadership took decisions that makes it more likely that we face the current threats
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> The rate at which we're churning out AI-generated code is going to make this worse

Not only this, a significant number of developers have stopped looking at code, trusting the bots. I've seen major security regressions, bot rolled auth implementations, and falsified benchmarks... just this last week, all in projects that get hyped.

Rule #2 - do not blindly trust Ai output

https://susam.net/inverse-laws-of-robotics.html

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> The rate at which we're churning out AI-generated code is going to make this worse, too, because AI-generated code is kind of notoriously terrible at security.

So you're saying it's good at finding exploits but bad at generating code? I can tell you don't know what you're talking about because pretty much all the exploits that are being found were exploits that were enabled by human written code. So let me correct your statement for you:

There are exploits everywhere and we humans have always been bad at writing code without exploits.

"New normal"? Is that phrase back again? It was heavily pushed in 2020.
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I have often whined about the quality (or lack, thereof) of today's software, but I certainly have no room to be smug. I recently turned an LLM loose on a number of mature packages that I wrote, and would have sworn were "perfect," and it found issues (thankfully, none, serious, but issues, nonetheless).

I think LLMs are a gamechanger. I was just talking to a friend of mine, last night, and he pointed out that it would have been quite difficult for a human (on their own) to find the PHP2Shell issue, but he thinks that multiple LLMs probably found it (it seems that some people knew about it before it was initially "discovered").

I think that we, as programmers, need to run LLMs on our own code -no matter what we think of them, for authoring the code- and do everything we can, to batten down the hatches.

>of today's software

There is tons of old software still around you can use your LLM to poke at. You'll see that it was crap too. Software has always sucked, very little of it has been formally verified or built.

I remember accidentally finding buffer overflows in Netware in school but I had no idea what that actually was at the time.

As someone relatively anti-LLM, I fully agree we should run them on our own code for a bug scan. I think the only two scenarios that make sense to avoid it is if you are ethically opposed to them AND releasing something just for fun, or if you are worried about IP issues from them training on your data AND haven't released the product yet. I have something in that second category, my plan is to run an LLM on it immediately before releasing.
Walk down the street in your local neighborhood. Most modern subdivisions have a single builder, but imagine it's an older street with a variety of homes. They all stand, they all hold off the elements well enough. They are heated, they are wired, and they are certainly comfortable enough to live in.

Now imagine you are an inspector. You enter these homes one by one and discover suboptimal electrical wiring, misaligned trimming, nonsensical handle placement, lazy tile jobs, etc.

Is it a problem? Only once it becomes one. There might be 10 things in your house right now that need fixing, but you will probably not become aware of them until they reach a critical point: a leak, a fire, a collapse.

The human body is similar, no? How many ticking health time bombs are you sitting on?

Maybe this is a reminder for you to go get that exam, haha.

My experience exactly, and also Linus Torvalds experience apparently, leading to a controversial and I think misunderstood take on AI-assisted coding.

Way too many people do the parallel LLM assistance = vibe-coding, opponents call it slop, proponents claim increased productivity. But vibe coding is just one aspect, but to me, analysis is where it shines, at least when quality matters.

We have static analyzers and sanitizers, sometimes fuzzers, which I think are essential to serious development work. Now, I think we can add LLMs to the list.

We blame AI for many evils, like a lack of understanding, code ownership, poor quality output, etc... This is the complete opposite, here the AI is not there to do the thinking for you, instead it says "here look, have your thought about this?", what to do next is up to you, you are in full control of the situation. It also makes development slower instead of faster, again, the opposite of what people claim AI does. But to me, it is the good kind of slow, as in "slow and steady wins the race".

I’d like to push back on the idea that this bug would have been quite difficult for a human to discover. I’m not much of a C programmer these days, but I’ve known longjmp to be a code smell for decades now. The reasons why were broadly covered in a 1968 CACM letter to the editor by Dijkstra that we’ve all certainly heard about. Though possibly not everyone makes the connection because if all you know of the article is its title then you can perhaps be forgiven for thinking it was only talking about one language keyword in particular.

What I’m getting at is that this PHP bug was adorned with marquee lights and sirens and a giant sign saying, “Hey, look here!”

That said, when that code was written 20 years ago they could perhaps be forgiven for this approach to handling OOM. The alternatives apparently come with a pretty decent performance penalty, and culture around memory safety wasn’t as strong then as it is now. But in 2026 there is an argument to be made that exploits are so common and damage potential is so high that we need to take the same mindset that flight control software developers have in their coding standards: some ways of doing things are dangerous enough that simply using them is a defect, even when they work exactly as intended, because they are just too hard to reason about.

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This is the new playing field, but this game can't last forever. Most software is not churning through a software factory of endless patches and releases. Most software, once mature, is mostly done.

I see a world in which we all get some generous Dependabot 2.0 on large forges because leaving so much software insecure otherwise is untenable, but once the software is not iterating a billion times a week, you're not introducing new classes of bugs just sitting there.

You can have a frontier security model pentesting your program every night while you sleep and you can wake up knowing that whatever happens, you did the best you could.

Alas, our brave new LLM world is making iterating one billion releases per week all too easy.

And on the positive side, LLMs make remediation much easier too. It took me around 15 minutes and a few dimes worth of DeepSeek tokens to upgrade some gnarly, janky, exploitable PHP 7.x code to the latest fully patched version of 8.3 today. Without LLMs, I would probably have been having a serious discussion about whether we should ditch the app entirely instead.

> Most software, once mature, is mostly done.

I think this is a dated mindset with AI in the mix. Not only is AI making it easier to do big-bang rewrites which wouldnt have been done before, it is making working on brownfield codebases more feasible. It is lowering the barrier to entry for non-devs to contribute to codebases. Most software did not stagnate because there wasnt a need to grow it more, it stagnated because the friction and/or cost of change hit a critical mass.

I think we are much too early into the "new era" of software to understand what it looks like tomorrow, especially in terms of what we assume to be true today.

> Most software, once mature, is mostly done.

The caveat being that most software never matures. Maybe it's a cynical take, but virtually all software I use regularly is updated at least once a month. Right now, I'm using Chrome, and I see the "Relaunch to update" button waiting for me to press it. I see the arrow on the Ollama icon telling me I have to relaunch it to apply updates. I have Visual Studio Code running next to my browser, and two extensions need to be restarted to apply updates.

But at least somebody is maintaining that software.

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> already being exploited in the wild [0]

The article cites this commercial blog patting themselves on the back how they detect the exploit, yet after reading it I don't see any actual exploiting? Is scanning/probing the same as active exploitation all of a sudden?

[0]: https://ellio.tech/en/blog/php2shell-what-we-observed-and-wh...

> Who knew a regex engine was such a security issue

Anyone who has ever implemented a regex engine, I would imagine. Regex has always been a security nightmare, especially due to persistent attempts to use regexes to validate untrusted input

> especially due to persistent attempts to use regexes to validate untrusted input

This is not the case here, it's an untrusted regex which can be the issue.

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Not new normal.

It already is a thing since I believe April as I follow cybersec.

Last year May, June, July counts of sec bulbs was order of magnitude lower than this year.

But idea is that it will not last forever. New code will be vuln checked by AI as well. So now we are in transition period that is awful but it won’t last.

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Security folks have understood this math for years: there have always been virtually infinite vulnerabilities in production software. Better researchers find them in any repo rather rapidly. The only thing keeping folks safe has been the limit to the research against any given repo that any highly-capable researcher would devote.

As the cost of research approaches 0 via AI tooling that approaches highly capable (and now tireless) researchers, the rate of findings will increase, as will the rate of subsequent incidents.

What remains an open question is whether in-production code quality can improve sufficiently over time to return to a state of relative security.

I'm not in a position to know. But Jason Clinton seemed to approximate "18 months" as an upper bound for the crisis period:

>as bad as things have gotten in the past 4 days, they are going to get a lot worse before they get better. security leaders, never let a crisis go to waste: please go to your boards and ask for help right now. not for ai, for the basics. (we need to hold on for ~18 months.)

https://x.com/JasonDClinton/status/2113325263157395456

Yes, but to be pedantic, no, this is a short term rise in CVEs.

This is a shift in the equilibrium of difficulty to find these exploits, but there are increased defensive tools and new awareness of these issues as important. There will be a large glut of AI detected bugs, there are decades of code surface to scan and clean up, so this will last a while.

Eventually net new software will end up being written in a more secure way, and important old software will be patched or replaced, or taken offline.

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People running old versions and not applying patches rigorously is also normal. Its been normal for decades, nobody likes doing maintenance so it gets forgotten or ignored.
I can tell you, if it is, I'm going to be radically changing the software architectures and patterns that I am recommending to people.

Data privacy and security must not be sacrificed.

A shift is needed towards simplification and minimization of attack surfaces.

I've entirely removed several dependencies which provide some pretty nice features, but unfortunately make things almost unmaintainable.

I want to go much further though to simplify architectures themselves even if it makes far worse ux.

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More like the old normal. For those who are not old enough to remember 25+ years ago, we used to have weekly stories about worms etc. and companies often ignored vulnerability reports. It was a wild time, and in many ways we are better prepared to deal with it today than we were back then.
I can't help but wonder if we're going to see the OS and browser maintainers begin streamlining code and reducing complexity. Software these days almost seems like a fractal of insecurity, the only way to make the problem more tractable is to reduce attack surface.
Is this the new normal, or just, uh, normal?

Big embarrassing network-exploitable bugs in major open-source projects happen sometimes, and network-scanning attack botnets have been around forever. Small shady CAs mess things up sometimes. People upload malware to PyPI and NPM all the time, and "move fast and break things" software-deployment startups get breached all the time, to the point where it doesn't even really feel like news to me when those things happen again.

It's unfortunate that a few of those events all happened at around the same time. But, like, even if that's not a coincidence and these events are actually happening more frequently, you should have been preparing for them anyway!

Yes, this is a new normal. No amount of what we historically would have thought of as "normal" preparation can prepare you for being instantly 0-dayed across one or sometimes multiple simultaneous fronts. Merely mentioning something tangentially related to a 0-day is generally enough for any random joe to "clean room" recreate the 0-day and be off to the races.

The historic embargo system is likely not sustainable and we need a shift in both approach and security posture (ie fully trustless architectures by default). Not only that, but because of the insanely amplified frequency and risk of the 0-days, you generally have to throw the baby out with the bathwater and leave yourself completely vulnerable to supply chain attacks. Because not short-circuiting taking upstream updates leaves you open to attack.

Theres shades of the old normal in this stuff, but absolutely this is the dial being turned up to 11 and I dont know if theres any right answers for small teams out there.

Yes, the PHP risks have been known, and partly assumed. I watched a group from MIT ignore sage advice on avoiding PHP but built their administration interface with it anyways. Now this device is deployed in heavy industry, in mining, in transportation, in healthcare, it's deployed everywhere and in multiple continents and in multiple huge cities. It's concerning that the recommendations we made were eshewed and they went ahead with this anyways and now we are in this situation. This group from MIT had formed a company, and they were bought by a large network device manufacturer. It's deeply deeply concerning.
> sage advice on avoiding PHP

That's not sage advice. That's just biased, reactionary rhetoric. PHP is just as good or bad as anything else, and it's often the best tool for the job. As with any other language, it can be implemented correctly or incorrectly.

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PHP is a perfectly fine language. It’s memory-safe, garbage collected, and high-level. It’s just as reasonable of a choice as C# or Java.

The PHP runtime has had very little vulnerabilities. Much less than Node.

This situation is temporary.

It is obviously true that there can only be a finite number of serious security bugs in any given software. For a given level of LLM capability, there is a finite subset of these bugs that is actually discoverable and exploitable. Once this finite subset is exhausted, the tide of new vulnerabilities will stop.

Perhaps we will see a few more tides like this, as LLM capabilities advance further. But there will be an end.

Is it obviously true? We are talking about Turing machines here and i am absolutely not an expert but i wouldn’t be surprised if there is an infinite number of potential vulnerabilities in most software.

I know there is some kind of mathematical proof that can be done to show the correctness of some software, but is that universally applicable or only in certain situations?

Would love to hear opinions on this from some one more knowledgeable in this area, as the “finite number of bugs” is a statement I’ve heard a lot lately and I’m not sure if it’s actually justified or not

Umm, what? Did we just enforce a global codefreeze in perpetuity? Or, even easier, did we just enforce a global codefreeze for the linux operating system in perpetuity? No? Ok, then how do we end up with a finite number of serious security bugs?
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For now yes. When LLMs can iterate and test at speeds humans cannot, it is going to continue to find holes.

An interesting side effect will be whether we accelerate moving towards memory safe languages (and development of more of those languages) in more sectors than just 'low-level'.

Not forgetting that this is only one mitigation of cyber-attacks and exploits and potentially removes a whole category of attacks developed by analyzing *source code*

My concern is that while we could absolutely eliminate most security bugs through LLM-assisted scanning of source code written in deterministic languages, we are shifting away from deterministic languages because of LLMs themselves. Instead of having purpose-built programs to carry out computational tasks that have a tree of logic that you can trace out and formally prove, we're expecting a black box to guess what we want done and we can't prove what it will do.
It really depends on your gut feeling about how deep the rabbit holes in terms of number of game changer vulnerabilities.

How many RCEs are in PHP of this kind? Many people would've said zero before. After the fixes, it may be zero again. It could be thousands, it could be eighty-six, it could be four, it could be zero. But even if you don't think it's zero again, most people will find themselves that there's probably not many left.

Extend this to other world ecosystem - how many high impact devastating security bugs are there? Dozens, hundreds, thousands, millions? At least when it comes to open source security, there has to be some low upper bound given how countable the number of projects there are where impact could be high and most have taken some care for their quality (despite obvious hardships). And while closed source software is harder to reason about (also on the ecosystem level), if there's a low upper bound for open source software surely the bound for closed source software can't be many orders of magnitude higher.

We now have new tools that allows us to discover these. Both the discovery as well as changes in the development process most are taken should bring these numbers closer to zero again. The main question is - are we working through a small backlog of issues, or a very deep one with no practical end? I'm still inclined to believe it's a manageable backlog, but I'm an optimist and everybody's intuitions differ on this.

No. This is just the start. It's going to get way worse before it gets better.
It’s mostly hype. Days in now and nobody can exploit the PHP vuln. Yawn.
There was a literal PoC video that started the panic, then multiple writeups. It's not hard (for people who know what they're doing) to exploit the PHP vuln. It's just not one exploit to rule every PHP installation anywhere, since this is a low-level exploit that needs to bypass ASLR, instead of a logic bug - so you need to tweak your exploit for every architecture, system, configuration, etc. And you need to know a fair bit about your target.

The response was overblown, but your dismissive reaction is too far in the other direction.

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That's not true. The vuln was exploited and utilized within minutes of the disclosure.
LiveOverflow has exploited the PHP vulnerability, it’s even linked in the article.
What confuses me the most is that nobody talks about the nature on how to exploit this vulnerability.

This has been a well known vulnerability for years but considered too complicated to exploit. It is the type of work that would have taken an expert weeks to hack into a single system and the idea that an AI can speed this is up is not unfounded but currently without evidence.

Yes, the attack surface is huge but when compared to Log4J this is materially more difficult to execute and the countless PoC that have been seen were AI slop.

As a security expert I see why you would not want to downplay this, but I think the involved actors have all the incentive to use this for their typical messaging.

As a tech community we have a greater responsibility to not be driven by hype but understand what is going on and let make ourselves some tools and be swayed by the messaging and instead talk about this in a more nuanced way. Perhaps I am wrong because I am not a cyber person myself but this all strikes me as similar to the whole Specter outrage.

These are all human-generated software bugs. At some point when AI writes all code, the bugs should all but disappear. Almost.
Bold of you to assume that AI-written and -reviewed code doesn't introduce new vulnerabilities. I think after we're done with this stretch of finding human-made vulnerabilities, we'll have a long road ahead to clean up the mess that's introduced by AI.
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The bugs will only disappear until the model that was used to security test the generated code becomes obsoleted. So, yes, this is the new cyber normal. Unless we replace the tech stack with a formally verified one. Which will need to happen, one way or another, seems to me. But cheap & sloppy generated code won't be feasible in this paradigm, so I believe we'll need a much more thoughtful approach.
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Allegedly AIs sometimes even forget to implement authentication for APIs, in the way anyone can just call them. So no, bugs will continue to exist, we've just magically got tons more supply of economical labor.
1. The average human software-generator sucks at security. 2. LLMs are trained on human-generated software. 3. Therefore, LLMs suck at security.
> Makes a few very wealthy tech CEOs very happy.

why is this both pros and cons?

Somewhat. I take heart in the fact that people actually took the "website down now" messaging seriously and that there was a quick patch to address the issue. It'll still be an arms race between red team and blue team, just faster paced.
By generating the entire website in AI, yes, you are contributing to the new normal
That's new Poisson
> Is this the new cyber normal?

No. We're in a "brief" [0] transition period where a scaleable superhuman developer enters the scene and discovers a whole heap of bugs. Once the majority of code is written by similar systems then the tide of critical bugs being found will slow down.

The article does sorta say this but lets not bury the lede to deeply. It isn't realistic to expect new security vulnerabilities to be found at this rate, we're clearing out years of backlog and the maintainers haven't had time to deploy AI to do the software right the first time. Once the situation stabilises I'd personally expect very few public vulnerabilities because the expertise in how to assess code security is moving from a handful of experts to everyone.

> The NHS approach: close source everything.

Yeah good luck. I've seen how these systems work at decompiling and I expect they're probably going to be really good at fuzzing too.

[0] Could take a while.

> Once the majority of code is written by similar systems then the tide of critical bugs being found will slow down.

I don’t know if this necessarily follows. I repeatedly see that AI will write code, then you have it audit the code for security vulnerabilities, and it still finds them. Just because AI can find bugs doesn’t mean it will write bug-free code. AI’s know how to take shortcuts to achieve their goals, and do it all the time.

Yes, you can have another AI audit the first AI’s code, but in practice this doesn’t always happen, especially because once the human gets their hands on the finished product, they don’t always take the extra step to ensure it’s audited. This is particularly true because people seem to think “well the AI wrote it in the first place, why would it find its own bugs?”, ignoring that context is everything, and an AI being asked to find bugs is going to approach the code a lot differently than an AI tasked with adding features.

That’s not to say it’s not possible to set things up properly into multi-agent stages with QA and security as first-class phases of development… I only mean to say that it’s not automatically true that “AI can find bugs” implies “AI doesn’t produce bugs”.

>It isn't realistic to expect new security vulnerabilities to be found at this rate

I wouldn't challenge fate like this.

+1. There aren't an infinite amount of serious security vulnerabilities out there.

> > The NHS approach: close source everything.

> Yeah good luck. I've seen how these systems work at decompiling and I expect they're probably going to be really good at fuzzing too.

Me too. The agents are much faster if it has access to source. NHS would have been easy hunting grounds. Now at least they don't stand out.

"a system should be secure, even if everything about the system—except the key—is public knowledge"

Should indeed, but we've all been caught with our pants down.

> Even though this was found by “responsible security researchers” at “respectable companies”, by the time the security patch actually got released, it was already being exploited in the wild.

I am really not pleased with the "let's delay" strategy. IMO, you should without any delay, let everyone know of security-related issues. This "try to keep it hidden so that malicious actors can not exploit" is incredibly unfair to everyone else. Why would I want to support that? I want to know the exploit, I want it explained and then, in that order, I also expect that it can be fixed eventually. This closed-source thinking is very annoying. If one LLM can find an exploit, so can others, so what's with the delay?

The idea is that there is still an advantage even in times of LLM and the delay helps with an orchestrated fix. (E.g. not only php needed the fix, but also several docker image etc.)

But I agree it is doubtful that there is still such an advantage...

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I'm a bit of an AI doomer but I'm going to disagree. I don't think this is the new mormal but there is going to be a dark transitional period.

What we're seeing is a bit of a "gold rush" where LLm advancements are coming thick and fast and they're being pointed out code bases that simply haven't had the level of scrutiny where relatively easy bugs to find have managed to survive. That's temporary. Here are my predictions:

1. Correctness and, in particular, memory safety is going to become increasingly important. I was bullish on Rust before this AI hype wave. LLMs finding and exploiting bugs has reinforced just important it is that Rust prevents as certain class of bugs that are the most prone to rmote exploitation ie certain memory safety issues.

I've long said that modern CPU architectures, out-of-order execution, hyperthreading (does that still exist? or did Intel fully kill it?), different CPU cores and compiler optimizations that it is essentially impossible for a human to write correct multithreaded code, particularly in userspace with "leaf node" code. LLMs just make that more apparent; and

2. Mature code bases for core functionality are going to become increasingly important because they've been "proven" in the wild (as much as you can prove a negative).

My sincerest hope, which is probably more wishful thinking than anything else, is that LLMs will be another nail in the coffin for C++, which is simply too complex and dragged down with legacy features and backwards compatibility to be salvageable.

> At the time of writing (23rd Oct), eMudhra has announced that it will be retiring from the certificate authority space. In unrelated news, a farmer has announced that he has shut his stable door, following reports of an escaped horse.

Ah, wit is alive and strong!

LLMs seem to be very good at detecting vulnerabilities caused by using C and other forms of human stupidity.

So yes.

Not for me. I’m taking my shit offline. Out of harms way.
Am I the only one that hates seeing "cyber" when refering to cybersecurity?

The same with "crypto" to refer to cryptocoins instead of cryptography.

It will be until we (hopefully) change the way we work.

Security has been an afterthought for most of the past 30-40 years, and there are virtually no regulations requiring security, audits, or inspections before releasing software.

Now that attacks are cheap and easy, the only way to prevent these constant compromises will be to secure things before releasing them - not an afterthought, but a prerequisite. If we do finally as a society demand this, then the compromises will go away, because we won't release any new versions of software without securing it first.

This depends on having open weights with strong security scanning. If nations keep banning powerful open weight models "because they're dangerous", those nations' companies will be at more risk, because they won't have the tools to secure their own software. Countries with more permissive models will allow their own businesses to secure their stacks earlier, more people will use those businesses, they will thrive. The invisible hand of the market will choose whoever can improve first, not whoever bans things first.

I hope not. A lot of LLM assisted vulnerability stuff has been noise, slop, fluff, or fake/false data. Drowns out the real issues.
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