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If you believe, as an increasing number of folks do, that LLMs are basically commoditized at this point or will be soon then there really isn’t a path forward for non open models.

There simply isn’t any value in the models and only in the compute to run them and potentially some higher-order coordination layers.

That’s very bad for the big model labs that banked their future on the opposite, but there just doesn’t seem to be a viable path forward on that approach anymore.

Meta hasn’t been the best global citizen for most of its life, but there may be some mild redemption if it becomes a source of strong open models.

I strongly prefer a world where open models "win," that said...

I don't understand how we will sustain an ecosystem of open models like the one that exists today. My thoughts go down this path every time I try to put the pieces together:

- Many open models depend on high quality frontier models as a distillation input

- US closed frontier models drive China's open model strategy despite the business model for open models being somewhat fuzzy

- What is the business model that benefits from open weights, exactly? How do their vendors recoup infrastructure and training costs?

I would be grateful to be enlightened on this topic.

Wouldn’t be that different from open source software, which has been very successful in many circles.

You make money from value-add on top of the models not the models themselves.

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