Free models help move robots; a complement. I can foresee the models staying free.
Maybe you're right for smaller models, but for frontier models this is the tail wagging the dog. If China has exclusive frontier model capability in the future, that's an enormous commercial and geopolitical lever. They won't throw that away to sell a few more robots. Anything beyond their competitors' capabilities will remain closed.
You imagine robots are going to play second fiddle to models, but they could become integral parts of model training with all the data they collect. Training could even become distributed. This will enable them to be responsive to local needs.
The robot market would have to be pretty damn valuable, to be worth throwing away a lead in the model market. Say, 10-100x as valuable.