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EthanHeilman | on: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs
Anthropic has no moat, their models just get distilled and resold. They can maybe get good margins when LLM improvement rate is very high but as it slows down they are looking at commodity margins. Google has the products that makes that commodity more than just cost of electricity + 0.5%.

My case is based on the assumption that Anthropic will not hit RSI or if it does RSI rapidly hits a wall. Faster your growth curve, the faster you eat all the low hanging fruit and s-curve. I could be wrong here, maybe RSI will cause a hard takeoff singularity by 2030 and just keep going, but if that happens the world fundamentally changes.

anonreplier | parent
Why would Google be the only interested buying party?
EthanHeilman | root | parent
They wouldn't be the only party, but they are in my opinion the most likely party.

What the people that can monetize it? Microsoft, X, IBM, Salesforce, Discord, Google

Microsoft would likely buy OpenAI due to their investment and integration with OpenAI. Making Anthropic not that valuable.

Google would likely buy Anthropic due to their investment and ties to Anthropic.

X, Salesforce maybe. Not sure Discord has the money. No idea if IBM capable of growing.

All this changes if Anthropic figures out a moat/sticky product that doesn't just depend on having the best LLM. If they pull off https://claude.com/solutions/healthcare then all bets are off.