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baalimago | on: DeepSeek V4 Flash on a Single AMD MI300X
Give it an AI-bubble pop and these will be flooding the market.
segmondy | parent | next
no they won't , the bubble is a financial thing. the demand is real and not going away.
atwrk | root | parent
The big question is whether the demand will stay if the subsidized pricing ends. That's what the bubble talk is about. Right now all the players compete for market share and don't care about the losses (hence the debt). But what happens if no one wants to lend them anymore?
jack_pp | root | parent | next
I don't think inference is subsidized, it's the training. So what happens is, there's no new models anymore or are released slower.
FeepingCreature | root | parent
API inference is probably not subsidized. Coding plans absolutely are.
vehemenz | root | parent
Good distinction. The demand is partially driven by the low costs, which are only low because the major providers are losing money.
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_factor | parent | next
They will be instantly bought out by companies, not individuals. The consumer bubble won’t pop for quite a while yet. Production also won’t ramp up while lack of real competition keeps the demand high.
aurareturn | parent | next
When is it popping? Is the AI bubble in the room with us now?
dghlsakjg | root | parent | next
Nvidia has ever so slightly underperformed the SP500 YTD (at the exact time this comment is being typed), so its basically the apocalypse already.
amrit3128 | root | parent | next
Tomorrow? Next year? In 5 years? Nobody can say. But we do know that AI is overvalued, so it WILL pop.
aurareturn | root | parent
Well, if no body can say when it will pop, then can we really say it's a bubble and it's overvalued?

I can tell you it will pop in 10 years and when it pops, it will still be 20x bigger than in 2026. Does that even make any sense?

People said AI bubble will pop soon in 2024 and that it was overvalued. Turns out, many AI stocks 10x, 20x since 2024. Actual usage has gone exponential as well. Anthropic revenue went from $100m ARR at start of 2024 to $80b ARR today.

ekidd | root | parent | next
> Well, if no body can say when it will pop, then can we really say it's a bubble and it's overvalued?

Well, given the literal trillions being spent, the only ways this pays off are:

1. AI replaces a non-trivial fraction of human employees.

2. Someone builds a Culture Mind, and humans become (hopefully) pampered pets of AIs we don't understand. Seems unlikely, but it would arguably count as a payoff even if it made money meaningless.

Or maybe the AIs don't want pets, and you get SkyNet. Which definitely doesn't care about paying off anyone's investments.

When you look at various news articles about investors, yeah, there are definitely a lot of rich people who think that they're going to automate all human labor or just bring about the Singularity. Possibly with them in charge of the rest of us. If you don't make these kinds of wild assumptions, then yeah, this is looking like one of the biggest bubbles ever.

aurareturn | root | parent | next
Can we see some actual numbers, projections, models instead of vibes?
atwrk | root | parent | next
Debt is at $3 trillion right now: https://fortune.com/2026/07/31/ai-debt-hypescalers-capex-cap...

Interest alone, at assumed 5%, amounts to about $150 billions per year. That's probably higher than the combined AI revenue of the top 3 providers.

qwytw | root | parent
That's what you should ask the companies spending massive amounts of money on AI though?
CamperBob2 | root | parent
1. AI replaces a non-trivial fraction of human employees.

I mean, it's pretty clear that's going to happen. How could it not?

The only question is whether resources are optimally allocated at the moment to prepare for this. That seems unlikely at best. So yes, there is probably a bubble, and if so, then yes, it will pop, and then life will go on, with resources better allocated. Just like when the dot-com bubble popped.

Joel_Mckay | root | parent
Many are saying July 2027, as in the past these market corrections have correlated with Shrek movie releases.

Debt-backed investors have to pay up eventually. =3

baalimago | root | parent | next
Next month perpetually
slaw | root | parent
The AI bubble will pop when China gets access to EUV, so the earliest it could happen is 2030
tamimio | parent
Thing is, GPUs will always be on demand, look at their history, initially for gaming, then for hash cracking, then 3D rendering, then for crypto mining, and now AI training and fine tuning. When AI bubble bursts, there will be another bubble taking over.

The only solution is more companies making high end units, only competition will make it better for consumers.