It’s not obvious at all. If it were obvious to you, it would’ve been to OpenAI. It’s in their interest to accurately predict demand. The assumption that OpenAI/Sam is both really powerful but simultaneously ignorant to know what others know as obvious is well.. just strange. Especially strange when OpenAI has more information on models, breakthrough and usage patterns and we don’t.
I’m not participating in the slinging match but it’s very very weird that you think it’s some established thing that these companies won’t make profit. A lot of hubris must go in this kind of thought. Like.. do you all think everyone’s playing musical chairs?
You say that like the tech world isn't littered in a field of dead and failed companies and billions of dollars burned on failed ventures and ideas. Sure LLMs have proven they have value, but where is the trillion dollars of current investment going to be paid back from? So far it is still entirely speculation that they have such a high value, and they can't just play the long game of "well after a few decades of production and iteration it will add up" because half the hardware cost is going to be obsolete energy burning trash for them in 5 years.
They very often have been in the past. Why do you think this time is different?
“Often” is load bearing. I don’t think markets are more likely than not to be musical chair shaped. To make this conversation more concrete, give me a falsifiable prediction on there existing a bubble. And then I’ll tell you if I believe in it or not.
The price of inference is going to go so low that OpenAI and Anthropic will not be able to turn a profit, thus cannot afford the investment into more data centers, thus crash due to investment in the space having been overdone