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AI is a threat to everyone. People who claim that AI will never be able to do X have consistently been proven wrong.

The only people who are safe are those whose jobs depend in some way on their humanity. e.g. yoga teachers, bouncers, etc

Nobody knows.

It's not a zero sum game. You can have AI "senior engineers" working under humans building bigger things than we've been able to.

We also don't know where the capabilities of current AIs will plateau. The benchmarks aren't really telling the entire story. From my perspective of using the models there are certain axis where they're not making a lot of progress, like being able to have large accurate context on the scale that humans can. There are other dimensions where there is still a large gap between human capabilities and LLMs. It's true that relative to other areas (lessay chess) LLMs are more generalized but they are still not fully generalized (back to the chess example, LLMs are not good at chess).

> It's not a zero sum game.

Resources are, though. The planet cannot support a race of digital super-people, and us, and an continually growing economy.

It's the height of folly to think that, as things are going, we are going anywhere "good".

I was arguing with a friend about this point today. I'd posit that our economy has been growing in a way where goods that require more human time and natural resources to produce are giving way to goods that are intangible.

Once we've met our basic material needs, we're tending to consume things that are replicable with low marginal costs, and which do not interfere with the production of other goods. So maybe we can actually support a continually growing digital and entertainment economy, at least for a few more generations.

Maybe these mathematical contributions will also impact the efficiency and capabilities of our material production systems as well, which is another way to keep the economy growing.

I'm optimistic that we'll do more with our resources rather than trying to optimize for doing the same more efficiently with less resources.

Economic growth doesn't mean using up resources faster, it means trading things faster.
This was sort of what I wanted to say, but I guess I should have worded it differently. I certainly didn't mean to say that I thought AI would stop improving. If anything I'm surprised at how much we have to fight the AI models to do what NASA has been doing for 60(?) years.
i'd take a yoga class from a bot
I'm now imagining Bender's Yoga class. I suspect it would hurt.
would prove that robots were subject to nominative determinism too, if nothing else!
How would this be different from taking a yoga class from a video?

I would be willing to be proven wrong, but I doubt the ability of LLMs to give useful corrections in yoga much more than their ability to write useful code.

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Your first two sentences were correct. The last one is already being proven false.

It's a threat to everyone. UBI is the only way.

Productivity improvements tend to increase employment. AI will not reduce employment.

(Also, the US budget deficit is way too high to afford a UBI.)