That is true, but while he is popular in his home turf, 10% is a low threshold for a figure as divisive as Farage, so seems pretty much inevitable, unless this pre-investigation-results by election kills the motivation.

Now would he win the second by election even with a finding of misconduct against him? He might very well. But the establishment parties (especially the Tories) will feel much better placed to challenge him if they have him being found to have conducted in dodgy behaviour.